Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-BasedTurn-Based + Female Protagonist

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Female-Led Turn-Based game?

Turn-Based + Female Protagonist

Of 32 developers who shipped a Female-Led Turn-Based game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 46 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $47k, ×75 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $7.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $9.3M, ×14916 the market median. Revenue is up 1815% on the market; 46 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 74.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 1815% on the market, 46 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based + Female Protagonist
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 32
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $49k → $206k → $375k → $6.0k → $8.8k → $129k → $81k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based + Female Protagonist: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 32
Bottom 30% $7.5k (exactly $7,492)
Median $47k (exactly $47,011)
Top 25% $132k (exactly $131,967)
Top 5% $9.4M (exactly $9,367,438)
Developers, 2 yr 32
Released games 313
Announced 46
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1815% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Female Protagonist
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Turn-Based Combat, JRPG
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime, Cute, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 33,680 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $7.5k, median $47k, 1 in 4 over $130k, 1 in 20 over $9.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $7.5k. 7 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 46 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Asynchronous MultiplayerStrong odds13 devs · median $60k · 10 announced
  2. + DragonsStrong odds7 devs · median $53k · 7 announced
  3. + Hack and SlashStrong odds8 devs · median $14k · 1 announced
  4. + SandboxFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  5. + HorrorFair16 devs · median $32k · 18 announced
  6. + CraftingFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  8. + Perma DeathFair49 devs · median $10k · 57 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  10. + ChessFair12 devs · median $1.2k · 13 announced
  11. + Tower DefensePoor odds9 devs · median $294k · 7 announced
  12. + 4XPoor odds16 devs · median $193k · 26 announced

All 110 pairs on the Turn-Based page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Path Of Wuxia older $34.99 28,286 78% 849k $30M (exactly $29,691,814) 香港商河洛互動娛樂股份有限公司
FINAL FANTASY X/X-2 HD Remaster older $29.99 19,857 87% 596k $18M (exactly $17,865,343) Square Enix
Pathfinder: Kingmaker — Enhanced Plus Edition older $19.99 28,146 77% 844k $17M (exactly $16,879,156) Owlcat Games
Transistor older $19.99 27,993 93% 840k $17M (exactly $16,787,402) Supergiant Games
FINAL FANTASY XII THE ZODIAC AGE older $49.99 8,679 88% 260k $13M (exactly $13,015,896) Square Enix
Monster Hunter Stories 3: Twisted Reflection $69.99 5,605 77% 168k $12M (exactly $11,768,818) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Ruined King: A League of Legends Story™ older $29.99 10,623 88% 319k $9.6M (exactly $9,557,513) Airship Syndicate
Chrono Ark older $24.99 12,623 90% 379k $9.5M (exactly $9,463,463) Al Fine
Thronebreaker: The Witcher Tales older $19.99 15,665 89% 470k $9.4M (exactly $9,394,300) CD PROJEKT RED
Sora no Kiseki the 1st $59.99 5,205 97% 156k $9.4M (exactly $9,367,438) Nihon Falcom
Backpack Battles $14.99 18,933 91% 568k $8.5M (exactly $8,514,170) PlayWithFurcifer
Wicked Seed $19.99 1,376 94% 41k $825k (exactly $825,187) Dead Right Games
Death Howl $19.99 1,301 92% 39k $780k (exactly $780,210) The Outer Zone
Atelier Ryza: Ever Darkness & the Secret Hideout DX $39.99 257 76% 7.7k $308k (exactly $308,323) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Day of the Shell $14.99 382 68% 11k $172k (exactly $171,785) Duper Games
Keylocker | Turn Based Cyberpunk Action $19.99 225 84% 6.8k $135k (exactly $134,932) Moonana
Atelier Ryza 2: Lost Legends & the Secret Fairy DX $39.99 110 85% 3.3k $132k (exactly $131,967) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Marisa of Liartop Mountain $14.99 286 84% 8.6k $129k (exactly $128,614) Alliance Arts, UnknownX

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.