Do I ship it?

GamesTactical RPGTactical RPG + Female Protagonist

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Female-Led Tactical RPG?

Tactical RPG + Female Protagonist

Of 70 developers who shipped a Female-Led Tactical RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 129 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.6k, ×7.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $960; 1 in 20 cleared $610k, ×973 the market median. Revenue is up 205% on the market; 129 games are announced against 37 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 205% on the market, 129 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tactical RPG + Female Protagonist
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 70
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.6k → $11k → $6.6k → $2.5k → $4.6k → $4.3k → $7.3k (still earning) → $14k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tactical RPG + Female Protagonist: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 70
Bottom 30% $959 (exactly $959)
Median $4.6k (exactly $4,554)
Top 25% $46k (exactly $46,177)
Top 5% $611k (exactly $610,925)
Developers, 2 yr 70
Released games 262
Announced 129
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 205% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tactical RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Female Protagonist
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Tactical RPG; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Strategy RPG, Turn-Based Strategy
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 7,993 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $960, median $4.6k, 1 in 4 over $46k, 1 in 20 over $610k.

3 in 10 developers made under $960. 8 in 10 of the 42 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 129 games are announced against 37 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tactical RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair24 devs · median $9.0k · 29 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonFair30 devs · median $2.4k · 24 announced
  3. + Space SimFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 15 announced
  4. + Point & ClickFair21 devs · median $839 · 26 announced
  5. + 2D PlatformerFair58 devs · median $599 · 49 announced
  6. + Asynchronous MultiplayerPoor odds10 devs · median $63k · 16 announced
  7. + Colony SimPoor odds16 devs · median $41k · 29 announced
  8. + SandboxPoor odds42 devs · median $20k · 102 announced
  9. + Turn-BasedPoor odds61 devs · median $18k · 81 announced
  10. + RobotsPoor odds15 devs · median $17k · 27 announced
  11. + RomancePoor odds23 devs · median $10k · 38 announced
  12. + WarPoor odds80 devs · median $8.7k · 143 announced

All 145 pairs on the Tactical RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition older $44.99 180,782 95% 5.4M $244M (exactly $244,001,465) Larian Studios
Valkyria Chronicles 4 Complete Edition older $49.99 5,691 86% 171k $8.5M (exactly $8,534,793) SEGA
Symphony of War: The Nephilim Saga older $19.99 12,880 94% 386k $7.7M (exactly $7,724,136) Dancing Dragon Games
TROUBLESHOOTER: Abandoned Children older $24.99 9,464 93% 284k $7.1M (exactly $7,095,161) Dandylion
Expeditions: Rome older $44.99 5,156 86% 155k $7.0M (exactly $6,959,053) Logic Artists
Valkyria Chronicles™ older $19.99 10,832 89% 325k $6.5M (exactly $6,495,950) SEGA
Dragon Age II: Ultimate Edition older $29.99 6,953 81% 209k $6.3M (exactly $6,255,614) BioWare
XCOM®: Chimera Squad older $9.99 20,602 71% 618k $6.2M (exactly $6,174,419) Firaxis Games
The Legend of Heroes: Trails in the Sky older $19.99 8,801 94% 264k $5.3M (exactly $5,277,960) Nihon Falcom
Fell Seal: Arbiter's Mark older $29.99 4,989 88% 150k $4.5M (exactly $4,488,603) 6 Eyes Studio
GreedFall: The Dying World $49.99 1,027 61% 31k $1.5M (exactly $1,540,192) Spiders
The Great Villainess: Strategy of Lily $29.99 1,529 85% 46k $1.4M (exactly $1,375,641) Alliance Arts, One or Eight, WSS Playgr… (Alliance Arts, One or Eight, WSS Playground)
Cauldron $14.99 1,678 92% 50k $755k (exactly $754,597) SleepyDad Games
Fantasy Maiden Wars - DREAM OF THE STRAY DREAMER - $34.99 582 98% 17k $611k (exactly $610,925) さんぼん堂
STARDUST: Wish of Witch $24.99 728 81% 22k $546k (exactly $545,782) Kniv Studio Co., Ltd.
Ledgerbound $29.99 562 92% 17k $506k (exactly $505,631) OmniMegaSuperCorp
Aether & Iron $24.99 521 84% 16k $391k (exactly $390,594) Seismic Squirrel, Chaos Theory Games
Labyrinth of Touhou Tri -The Dreaming Girls & The Mysterious Orbs- $19.99 616 82% 18k $369k (exactly $369,415) Nise-Eikoku Studio
Disciples: Domination $44.99 218 65% 6.5k $294k (exactly $294,235) Artefacts Studio
Vultures - Scavengers of Death $17.99 532 81% 16k $287k (exactly $287,120) Team Vultures

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.