Do I ship it?

GamesSandboxSandbox + Female Protagonist

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Female-Led Sandbox?

Sandbox + Female Protagonist

Of 69 developers who shipped a Female-Led Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 128 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.7k, ×9.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.0M, ×1597 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 128 games are announced against 46 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 9.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 128 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sandbox + Female Protagonist
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 69
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.7k → $72k → $14k → $7.1k → $35k → $8.1k → $1.5k (still earning) → $3.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sandbox + Female Protagonist: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 69
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,166)
Median $5.7k (exactly $5,694)
Top 25% $54k (exactly $53,514)
Top 5% $1.0M (exactly $1,002,698)
Developers, 2 yr 69
Released games 223
Announced 128
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 85% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Female Protagonist
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sandbox; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Adventure, Open World
Price point
$12.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 10,856 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $5.7k, 1 in 4 over $53k, 1 in 20 over $1.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 6 in 10 of the 29 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 128 games are announced against 46 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sandbox with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FightingStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  3. + World War IIFair14 devs · median $146k · 13 announced
  4. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $17k · 12 announced
  5. + ProgrammingFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  6. + CatsFair63 devs · median $4.8k · 74 announced
  7. + SportsFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  8. + GamblingFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  9. + Auto BattlerFair45 devs · median $1.9k · 42 announced
  10. + Combat RacingFair21 devs · median $1.8k · 26 announced
  11. + Trading Card GameFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  12. + IdlerFair258 devs · median $1.2k · 306 announced

All 233 pairs on the Sandbox page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Slime Rancher older $19.99 139,509 98% 4.2M $84M (exactly $83,663,547) Monomi Park
Saints Row IV: Re-Elected older $19.99 57,525 87% 1.7M $34M (exactly $34,497,742) Deep Silver Volition
My Time at Portia older $29.99 34,844 91% 1.0M $31M (exactly $31,349,147) Pathea Games
My Time at Sandrock older $39.99 24,110 88% 723k $29M (exactly $28,924,767) Pathea Games
BONELAB older $39.99 18,670 82% 560k $22M (exactly $22,398,399) Stress Level Zero
Saints Row: The Third older $9.99 48,877 95% 1.5M $15M (exactly $14,648,437) Volition
Evil Genius 2: World Domination older $39.99 11,255 69% 338k $14M (exactly $13,502,624) Rebellion
Homeworld: Deserts of Kharak older $49.99 7,800 79% 234k $12M (exactly $11,697,660) Blackbird Interactive
Cooking Simulator older $19.99 17,837 84% 535k $11M (exactly $10,696,849) Big Cheese Studio
Farm Together older $19.99 17,647 93% 529k $11M (exactly $10,582,906) Milkstone Studios
Wicked Island · EA $34.99 1,194 76% 36k $1.3M (exactly $1,253,342) RawDarkness
AETHUS $19.99 2,030 94% 61k $1.2M (exactly $1,217,391) Pawsmonaut Games
Goat Simulator: Remastered $29.99 1,162 88% 35k $1.0M (exactly $1,045,451) Coffee Stain Studios, Coffee Stain Nort… (Coffee Stain Studios, Coffee Stain North, Deep Silver Fishlabs)
Skin Deep $19.99 1,672 94% 50k $1.0M (exactly $1,002,698) Blendo Games
Little Rocket Lab $19.99 1,286 90% 39k $771k (exactly $771,214) Teenage Astronauts
Sapphire Safari · EA $12.99 1,653 92% 50k $644k (exactly $644,174) Kinky Fridays
Bobo Bay $24.99 770 95% 23k $577k (exactly $577,269) NewFutureKids
Under The Island $19.99 446 92% 13k $267k (exactly $267,466) Slime King Games
Cabin Crew Life Simulator · EA $12.99 505 70% 15k $197k (exactly $196,798) SOGA Std
Honeycomb: The World Beyond $29.99 138 65% 4.1k $124k (exactly $124,159) Frozen Way

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.