Games › Physics › Physics + Female Protagonist
Should I ship a Female-Led Physics game?
Physics + Female Protagonist
Of 114 developers who shipped a Female-Led Physics game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 182 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $200k, ×328 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 182 games are announced against 65 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $239 (exactly $239) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.2k (exactly $1,198) |
| Top 25% | $7.1k (exactly $7,128) |
| Top 5% | $206k (exactly $205,894) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 114 |
| Released games | 343 |
| Announced | 182 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $4.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Physics
- effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
- Female Protagonist
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Physics; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Simulation, Adventure
- Price point
- $4.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Cute, First-Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.
The top 10 games average 91% positive over 24,441 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $240. 9 in 10 of the 62 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 182 games are announced against 65 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Physics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds
- + Dating SimFair
- + PinballFair
- + World War IIFair
- + Mini GolfFair
- + GolfFair
- + CollectathonFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + CatsFair
- + Mystery DungeonFair
- + BilliardsFair
Comparable games
Portal 2 2011 · $117M 
Portal 2007 · $52M 
BONELAB 2022 · $22M 
Cairn 2026 · $16M 
Cooking Simulator 2019 · $11M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Portal 2 | older | $9.99 | 390,412 98% | 12M | $117M (exactly $117,006,476) | Valve |
| | Portal | older | $9.99 | 173,594 98% | 5.2M | $52M (exactly $52,026,122) | Valve |
| | BONELAB | older | $39.99 | 18,670 82% | 560k | $22M (exactly $22,398,399) | Stress Level Zero |
| | Cairn | $29.99 | 18,224 94% | 547k | $16M (exactly $16,396,133) | The Game Bakers | |
| | Cooking Simulator | older | $19.99 | 17,837 84% | 535k | $11M (exactly $10,696,849) | Big Cheese Studio |
 | Construction Simulator | older | $24.99 | 10,606 82% | 318k | $8.0M (exactly $7,951,318) | weltenbauer. Software Entwicklung GmbH |
 | Amnesia: Rebirth | older | $29.99 | 7,894 77% | 237k | $7.1M (exactly $7,102,232) | Frictional Games |
 | Trine Enchanted Edition | older | $14.99 | 12,843 95% | 385k | $5.8M (exactly $5,775,497) | Frozenbyte |
 | Donut County | older | $12.99 | 11,038 91% | 331k | $4.3M (exactly $4,301,509) | Ben Esposito |
 | Webbed | older | $9.99 | 13,820 97% | 415k | $4.1M (exactly $4,141,854) | Sbug Games |
 | Eternal Strands | $29.99 | 1,661 87% | 50k | $1.5M (exactly $1,494,402) | Yellow Brick Games | |
 | Goat Simulator: Remastered | $29.99 | 1,162 88% | 35k | $1.0M (exactly $1,045,451) | Coffee Stain Studios, Coffee Stain Nort… (Coffee Stain Studios, Coffee Stain North, Deep Silver Fishlabs) | |
 | Consume Me | $14.99 | 1,066 91% | 32k | $479k (exactly $479,380) | Jenny Jiao Hsia, AP Thomson, Jie En Lee… (Jenny Jiao Hsia, AP Thomson, Jie En Lee, Violet W-P, Ken "coda" Snyder) | |
 | Reach | $29.99 | 244 66% | 7.3k | $220k (exactly $219,527) | nDreams Elevation | |
 | Backseat Drivers | $9.99 | 687 78% | 21k | $206k (exactly $205,894) | GhostJam Games, Deadcat Studios | |
 | Ambrosia Sky | $24.99 | 267 89% | 8.0k | $200k (exactly $200,170) | Soft Rains, Blackbird Interactive | |
 | FUTA RUNNER: Big Dick Edition | $6.99 | 733 66% | 22k | $154k (exactly $153,710) | Evil Boobs Cult | |
 | Head's Adventures:chibichibi | $7.99 | 334 97% | 10k | $80k (exactly $80,060) | ManaWanderer | |
 | Otherskin | $29.99 | 63 69% | 1.9k | $57k (exactly $56,681) | Game Atelier |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.