Do I ship it?

GamesMystery DungeonMystery Dungeon + Female Protagonist

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Female-Led Mystery Dungeon?

Mystery Dungeon + Female Protagonist

Of 59 developers who shipped a Female-Led Mystery Dungeon in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 61 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.8k, ×8.1 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $300k, ×633 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 61 games are announced against 33 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 8.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 61 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Mystery Dungeon + Female Protagonist
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 59
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.4k → $20k → $2.2k → $3.3k → $12k → $14k → $419 (still earning) → $358 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Mystery Dungeon + Female Protagonist: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 59
Bottom 30% $358 (exactly $358)
Median $3.8k (exactly $3,835)
Top 25% $33k (exactly $32,735)
Top 5% $301k (exactly $300,613)
Developers, 2 yr 59
Released games 156
Announced 61
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Mystery Dungeon
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Female Protagonist
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Mystery Dungeon; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Adventure, Dungeon Crawler
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime, 2D, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 7,024 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $3.8k, 1 in 4 over $32k, 1 in 20 over $300k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 30 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 61 games are announced against 33 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Mystery Dungeon with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGStrong odds43 devs · median $21k · 23 announced
  2. + TacticalStrong odds20 devs · median $2.5k · 15 announced
  3. + Auto BattlerFair17 devs · median $13k · 16 announced
  4. + RomanceFair12 devs · median $5.8k · 10 announced
  5. + Perma DeathFair27 devs · median $2.7k · 29 announced
  6. + Tactical RPGFair30 devs · median $2.4k · 24 announced
  7. + Walking SimulatorFair34 devs · median $1.6k · 35 announced
  8. + SimulationFair57 devs · median $1.3k · 67 announced
  9. + Bullet HellFair14 devs · median $1.0k · 18 announced
  10. + Time ManagementFair11 devs · median $898 · 8 announced
  11. + HistoricalFair7 devs · median $719 · 10 announced
  12. + PhysicsFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced

All 116 pairs on the Mystery Dungeon page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Resonance: A Plague Tale Legacy $49.99 3,558 92% 107k $5.3M (exactly $5,335,933) Asobo Studio
Touhou Genso Wanderer -Reloaded- older $34.99 1,734 93% 52k $1.8M (exactly $1,820,180) AQUASTYLE
Escape Dungeon 2 older $17.99 1,700 93% 51k $917k (exactly $917,490) Hide Games
Rustil: Eternal Labyrinth Castle $18.99 950 71% 29k $541k (exactly $541,215) KTMG LLC.
Tangledeep older $14.99 1,075 82% 32k $483k (exactly $483,428) Impact Gameworks
Omega Labyrinth Life older $59.99 263 64% 7.9k $473k (exactly $473,321) Matrix
Dungeon Drafters older $24.99 563 76% 17k $422k (exactly $422,081) Manalith Studios
Touhou Genso Wanderer -FORESIGHT- older $34.99 290 46% 8.7k $304k (exactly $304,413) AQUASTYLE, ankaa studio
Nightmare Knight ~Sacred Maiden & Fallen Magic~ $17.99 557 86% 17k $301k (exactly $300,613) orzPINEz
Strikey Sisters older $9.99 785 90% 24k $235k (exactly $235,264) DYA Games
House of Necrosis $11.99 581 94% 17k $209k (exactly $208,986) Warkus
Goblin Dungeons $17.99 291 83% 8.7k $157k (exactly $157,053) Loolust
Touhou ~Red Empress Devil. $8.99 438 70% 13k $118k (exactly $118,129) STUDIO POCO
Maid of Salvation $14.99 209 88% 6.3k $94k (exactly $93,987) ORANGE POPCORN
Warrior Maiden Lecia and the Lost Fortress $19.99 149 85% 4.5k $89k (exactly $89,355) Kuroto Zakka
The Crazy Hyper-Dungeon Chronicles $9.99 233 78% 7.0k $70k (exactly $69,830) Fix-a-Bug
Death end re;Quest: Code Z $39.99 58 72% 1.7k $70k (exactly $69,583) Idea Factory, Compile Heart

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.