Do I ship it?

GamesIdlerIdler + Female Protagonist

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Female-Led Idler?

Idler + Female Protagonist

Of 103 developers who shipped a Female-Led Idler in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 114 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×4.0 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $170k, ×365 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 114 games are announced against 71 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 114 announced, ×1.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Idler + Female Protagonist
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 103
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.5k → $4.6k → $32k → $1.9k → $5.4k → $1.1k → $839 (still earning) → $1.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Idler + Female Protagonist: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 103
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $1.9k (exactly $1,915)
Top 25% $14k (exactly $14,142)
Top 5% $174k (exactly $173,590)
Developers, 2 yr 103
Released games 271
Announced 114
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $2.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 95% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Idler
effort 1 / 10 · high · number growth curves and a UI
Female Protagonist
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Idler; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Incremental, Adventure
Price point
$2.99 typical · top 25% priced $11.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Cute, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $11.99 or above; the middle game at $2.99.

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 20,076 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $1.9k, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $170k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 7 in 10 of the 54 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 114 games are announced against 71 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Idler with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds10 devs · median $36k · 10 announced
  2. + FarmingStrong odds33 devs · median $5.9k · 25 announced
  3. + Hack and SlashFair32 devs · median $6.4k · 50 announced
  4. + DrivingFair16 devs · median $5.5k · 18 announced
  5. + LootFair181 devs · median $4.5k · 256 announced
  6. + FPSFair22 devs · median $4.2k · 23 announced
  7. + Turn-Based CombatFair52 devs · median $4.0k · 41 announced
  8. + Turn-Based StrategyFair50 devs · median $3.6k · 45 announced
  9. + Dynamic NarrationFair16 devs · median $3.0k · 17 announced
  10. + Dark FantasyFair83 devs · median $2.9k · 128 announced
  11. + CapitalismFair205 devs · median $2.9k · 260 announced
  12. + SwordplayFair9 devs · median $2.7k · 4 announced

All 177 pairs on the Idler page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Chill with You : Lo-Fi Story $11.99 12,215 98% 366k $4.4M (exactly $4,393,736) Nestopi Inc.
Cauldron $14.99 1,678 92% 50k $755k (exactly $754,597) SleepyDad Games
Ithya: Magic Studies $10.99 2,103 97% 63k $693k (exactly $693,359) BlueTurtle
Chill Pulse older $4.99 4,619 95% 139k $691k (exactly $691,464) Catos Game
Luna's Fishing Garden older $7.99 1,689 93% 51k $405k (exactly $404,853) Coldwild Games, illufinch
👑 Idle Calibur 👑(选王之剑) older $7.99 1,242 85% 37k $298k (exactly $297,707) 绝汪
Haydee 3 $29.99 321 84% 9.6k $289k (exactly $288,804) Haydee Interactive
欺神弄鬼 · EA $9.99 802 91% 24k $240k (exactly $240,359) 猫台班子工作室 Cat Caboodle
无休仙途 $5.99 966 72% 29k $174k (exactly $173,590) GOCORE
挂姬恶魔 IDLE DEVILS older $3.99 1,224 79% 37k $147k (exactly $146,513) GOCORE
Marisa!ReturnTheBook! $5.99 700 90% 21k $126k (exactly $125,790) NARROW, TSUKUYOMIC
Cultivation Magic World · EA $12.99 276 78% 8.3k $108k (exactly $107,557) DMG Studio
Alice's Gaze $3.99 770 91% 23k $92k (exactly $92,169) Starmoon Cat
Memory of Memorie : A Chill Story $11.99 245 98% 7.4k $88k (exactly $88,126) BeXide Inc.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.