Do I ship it?

GamesGun CustomizationGun Customization + Female Protagonist

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Female-Led Gun Customization game?

Gun Customization + Female Protagonist

Of 22 developers who shipped a Female-Led Gun Customization game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 47 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.7k, ×9.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $560k, ×898 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 47 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 9.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 47 announced, ×3.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Gun Customization + Female Protagonist
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 22
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $11k → $14k → $1.0k → $273k → $809 → $5.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Gun Customization + Female Protagonist: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 22
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $5.7k (exactly $5,694)
Top 25% $57k (exactly $56,681)
Top 5% $564k (exactly $564,035)
Developers, 2 yr 22
Released games 51
Announced 47
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Gun Customization
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Female Protagonist
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Gun Customization; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Action-Adventure
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 4,080 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $5.7k, 1 in 4 over $56k, 1 in 20 over $560k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 5 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 47 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Gun Customization with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Tower DefenseFair26 devs · median $958 · 32 announced
  2. + DystopianPoor odds16 devs · median $51k · 58 announced
  3. + Immersive SimPoor odds12 devs · median $25k · 44 announced
  4. + BuildingPoor odds13 devs · median $16k · 39 announced
  5. + Survival HorrorPoor odds26 devs · median $14k · 55 announced
  6. + ModernPoor odds18 devs · median $14k · 38 announced
  7. + MilitaryPoor odds50 devs · median $13k · 126 announced
  8. + StealthPoor odds20 devs · median $13k · 63 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds31 devs · median $11k · 92 announced
  10. + MechsPoor odds12 devs · median $11k · 32 announced
  11. + Resource ManagementPoor odds28 devs · median $11k · 71 announced
  12. + Base BuildingPoor odds23 devs · median $9.1k · 64 announced

All 93 pairs on the Gun Customization page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Far Cry® 6 older $59.99 33,280 71% 998k $60M (exactly $59,894,016) Ubisoft Toronto, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubis… (Ubisoft Toronto, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Kyiv, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Berlin)
RESONANCE OF FATE™/END OF ETERNITY™ 4K/HD EDITION older $34.99 983 80% 29k $1.0M (exactly $1,031,855) tri-Ace
Cavalry Girls older $11.99 1,877 88% 56k $675k (exactly $675,157) 中子星游戏研究所
Project Warlock II $16.99 1,233 80% 37k $628k (exactly $628,460) Buckshot Software
TurretGirls $9.99 1,882 85% 56k $564k (exactly $564,035) NANAIRO ENTERPRISE
Black Ice · EA older $19.99 515 95% 15k $309k (exactly $308,846) Nonadecimal Creative, Super Duper Garre… (Nonadecimal Creative, Super Duper Garrett Cooper)
Sensual Adventures - Treasure Island · EA $29.99 303 81% 9.1k $273k (exactly $272,609) Puppetmaster3dx
E.E.R.I.E2 older $7.99 624 75% 19k $150k (exactly $149,573) Ureasoft
Get To Work, Succubus-Chan! older $9.99 480 78% 14k $144k (exactly $143,856) SmallSqurriel, Eternal Alice Game
异变战区 E.E.R.I.E older $6.99 441 79% 13k $92k (exactly $92,478) Ureasoft
Clockwork Ambrosia $19.99 133 84% 4.0k $80k (exactly $79,760) Realmsoft
Lust 'n Dead 🔞 $9.99 212 66% 6.4k $64k (exactly $63,536) Octo Games
Otherskin $29.99 63 69% 1.9k $57k (exactly $56,681) Game Atelier
Ghetto Zombies: Graffiti Squad $9.99 82 95% 2.5k $25k (exactly $24,575) Fogo Games
SATAN $2.99 143 81% 4.3k $13k (exactly $12,827) Gamefruit
Magical Hellhound Lust · EA $19.99 13 53% 390 $7.8k (exactly $7,796) Mildaponno
No More Demon · EA $12.99 16 87% 480 $6.2k (exactly $6,235) Mundus Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.