Do I ship it?

GamesFarming SimFarming Sim + Shop Keeper

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Shop Keeper Farming Sim?

Farming Sim + Shop Keeper

Of 51 developers who shipped a Shop Keeper Farming Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 108 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $7.6k, ×16 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $290k, ×611 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 108 games are announced against 42 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 16.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 108 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Farming Sim + Shop Keeper
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 51
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $89k → $12k → $987 (still earning) → $2.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Farming Sim + Shop Keeper: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 51
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $7.6k (exactly $7,635)
Top 25% $30k (exactly $30,476)
Top 5% $290k (exactly $290,056)
Developers, 2 yr 51
Released games 61
Announced 108
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 320% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Farming Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Shop Keeper
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Farming Sim, Shop Keeper; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Management, Economy
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, 3D, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 7,072 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $7.6k, 1 in 4 over $30k, 1 in 20 over $290k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 5 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 108 games are announced against 42 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Farming Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair19 devs · median $12k · 23 announced
  2. + DogsFair18 devs · median $4.1k · 20 announced
  3. + IncrementalFair140 devs · median $1.6k · 168 announced
  4. + IdlerFair208 devs · median $1.3k · 211 announced
  5. + TacticalFair12 devs · median $897 · 10 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair17 devs · median $718 · 16 announced
  7. + God GameLong shot22 devs · median $359 · 24 announced
  8. + Visual NovelLong shot11 devs · median $239 · 13 announced
  9. + LGBTQ+Poor odds10 devs · median $146k · 16 announced
  10. + Psychological HorrorPoor odds11 devs · median $111k · 25 announced
  11. + JRPGPoor odds14 devs · median $89k · 20 announced
  12. + HorsesPoor odds14 devs · median $70k · 20 announced

All 102 pairs on the Farming Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Teddy's Haven · EA $14.99 2,800 95% 84k $1.3M (exactly $1,259,160) Teddy Bear Games LLC
Winkeltje: The Little Shop older $14.99 1,612 88% 48k $725k (exactly $724,916) Sassybot
Boba Cafe Simulator $15.99 1,192 92% 36k $572k (exactly $571,802) Caikemi
Happy Sheepies older $19.99 561 85% 17k $336k (exactly $336,432) Berker Games
Farm to Table · EA $14.99 645 91% 19k $290k (exactly $290,056) indieGiant
Weed Supermarket Simulator $14.99 420 87% 13k $189k (exactly $188,874) DreamWay Games
Sugardew Island - Your cozy farm shop $16.99 291 76% 8.7k $148k (exactly $148,323) rokaplay
Not Monday Cafe $8.99 539 94% 16k $145k (exactly $145,368) Sunny Syrup Studio
Cozy Keep: Farm, Craft, Manage · EA $14.99 315 93% 9.5k $142k (exactly $141,656) Unbossed Games
Ranch Farm and Store Simulator $12.99 252 84% 7.6k $98k (exactly $98,204) Bewolba Studios
Dungeon Bodega Simulator $9.99 320 98% 9.6k $96k (exactly $95,904) Alien Fruit
Hydroponics Farm & Store Simulator $9.99 298 80% 8.9k $89k (exactly $89,311) Bewolba Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.