Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-BasedTurn-Based + Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Fantasy Turn-Based game?

Turn-Based + Fantasy

Of 163 developers who shipped a Fantasy Turn-Based game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 242 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $14k, ×22 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.0k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.0M, ×3233 the market median. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 242 games are announced against 88 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 22.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 25% on the market, 242 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based + Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 163
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $132k → $12k → $29k → $32k → $23k → $20k → $9.0k (still earning) → $2.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based + Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 163
Bottom 30% $3.0k (exactly $2,997)
Median $14k (exactly $13,850)
Top 25% $121k (exactly $121,419)
Top 5% $2.0M (exactly $2,030,509)
Developers, 2 yr 163
Released games 956
Announced 242
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $13.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Fantasy
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Strategy, Roguelike
Price point
$13.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $13.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 70,606 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.0k, median $14k, 1 in 4 over $120k, 1 in 20 over $2.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.0k. 6 in 10 of the 83 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 242 games are announced against 88 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Asynchronous MultiplayerStrong odds13 devs · median $60k · 10 announced
  2. + DragonsStrong odds7 devs · median $53k · 7 announced
  3. + Hack and SlashStrong odds8 devs · median $14k · 1 announced
  4. + SandboxFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  5. + HorrorFair16 devs · median $32k · 18 announced
  6. + CraftingFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  8. + Perma DeathFair49 devs · median $10k · 57 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  10. + ChessFair12 devs · median $1.2k · 13 announced
  11. + Tower DefensePoor odds9 devs · median $294k · 7 announced
  12. + 4XPoor odds16 devs · median $193k · 26 announced

All 110 pairs on the Turn-Based page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Total War: WARHAMMER II older $59.99 85,134 92% 2.6M $153M (exactly $153,215,660) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Slay the Spire older $24.99 191,765 97% 5.8M $144M (exactly $143,766,220) Mega Crit
Darkest Dungeon® older $24.99 140,790 91% 4.2M $106M (exactly $105,550,263) Red Hook Studios
Total War: THREE KINGDOMS older $39.99 63,110 82% 1.9M $76M (exactly $75,713,067) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
South Park™: The Stick of Truth™ older $29.99 60,770 97% 1.8M $55M (exactly $54,674,769) Obsidian Entertainment
OMORI older $19.99 79,836 97% 2.4M $48M (exactly $47,877,649) OMOCAT, LLC
Divinity: Original Sin - Enhanced Edition older $39.99 27,485 88% 825k $33M (exactly $32,973,754) Larian Studios
OCTOPATH TRAVELER™ older $59.99 13,923 85% 418k $25M (exactly $25,057,223) Square Enix, ACQUIRE Corp.
OCTOPATH TRAVELER II older $59.99 13,407 93% 402k $24M (exactly $24,128,578) Square Enix, ACQUIRE Corp.
For The King older $19.99 31,038 87% 931k $19M (exactly $18,613,489) IronOak Games
9 Kings · EA $19.99 21,352 92% 641k $13M (exactly $12,804,794) Sad Socket
Monster Hunter Stories 3: Twisted Reflection $69.99 5,605 77% 168k $12M (exactly $11,768,818) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Sora no Kiseki the 1st $59.99 5,205 97% 156k $9.4M (exactly $9,367,438) Nihon Falcom
Backpack Battles $14.99 18,933 91% 568k $8.5M (exactly $8,514,170) PlayWithFurcifer
DRAGON QUEST III HD-2D Remake $59.99 4,010 75% 120k $7.2M (exactly $7,216,797) Square Enix, ARTDINK
Romancing SaGa 2: Revenge of the Seven $49.99 3,921 93% 118k $5.9M (exactly $5,880,324) Square Enix, xeen Inc.
OCTOPATH TRAVELER 0 $49.99 2,873 78% 86k $4.3M (exactly $4,308,638) Square Enix, DOKIDOKI GROOVE WORKS
DRAGON QUEST VII Reimagined $59.99 2,138 88% 64k $3.8M (exactly $3,847,759) Square Enix, HEXADRIVE Inc.
DRAGON QUEST I & II HD-2D Remake $59.99 1,731 84% 52k $3.1M (exactly $3,115,281) Square Enix, ARTDINK
Sol Cesto $13.99 4,838 91% 145k $2.0M (exactly $2,030,509) Tambouille, Géraud Zucchini, Chariospir… (Tambouille, Géraud Zucchini, Chariospirale)

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.