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Should I ship a Fantasy Open World Survival Craft?
Open World Survival Craft + Fantasy
Of 21 developers who shipped a Fantasy Open World Survival Craft in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 82 more are announced, ×6.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 9 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $40k, ×30 the market's $1.3k for a 9 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $9.3k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.8M, ×1375 the market median. Revenue is up 270% on the market; 82 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $9.3k (exactly $9,291) |
|---|---|
| Median | $40k (exactly $39,815) |
| Top 25% | $356k (exactly $356,108) |
| Top 5% | $1.9M (exactly $1,851,759) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 21 |
| Released games | 86 |
| Announced | 82 |
| Effort | 9 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $19.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 270% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Open World Survival Craft
- effort 9 / 10 · low · dedicated multiplayer servers over a huge content build
- Fantasy
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 9 / 10 · studio only
- Systems
- Open World Survival Craft; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Crafting, Adventure, Base Building
- Price point
- $19.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $19.99.
The top 10 games average 79% positive over 35,804 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $9.3k. 6 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 82 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Open World Survival Craft with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + AutomationFair
- + Co-opPoor odds
- + Online Co-OpPoor odds
- + Immersive SimPoor odds
- + PhysicsPoor odds
- + Colony SimPoor odds
- + MedievalPoor odds
- + ShooterPoor odds
- + PvPPoor odds
- + Sci-fiPoor odds
- + Character CustomizationPoor odds
- + RPGPoor odds
Comparable games
| Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Conan Exiles Enhanced | older | $39.99 | 79,741 78% | 2.4M | $96M (exactly $95,665,278) | Funcom, Inflexion Games |
| | RuneScape: Dragonwilds | $29.99 | 28,071 81% | 842k | $25M (exactly $25,255,479) | Jagex Ltd | |
| | Nightingale | · EA older | $29.99 | 15,338 66% | 460k | $14M (exactly $13,799,599) | Inflexion Games |
| | The Lord of the Rings: Return to Moria™ | older | $29.99 | 10,242 80% | 307k | $9.2M (exactly $9,214,727) | Free Range Games |
| | Dark and Light | · EA older | $17.99 | 10,577 51% | 317k | $5.7M (exactly $5,708,407) | Snail Games USA |
| | Citadel: Forged with Fire | older | $14.99 | 5,004 67% | 150k | $2.3M (exactly $2,250,299) | Blue Isle Studios |
| | Creativerse | older | $24.99 | 2,646 77% | 79k | $2.0M (exactly $1,983,706) | Playful Corp. |
| | Lost Skies | $24.99 | 2,470 63% | 74k | $1.9M (exactly $1,851,759) | Bossa Studios | |
| | Saleblazers | · EA older | $29.99 | 1,974 78% | 59k | $1.8M (exactly $1,776,008) | AIRSTRAFE INTERACTIVE |
| | Wurm Unlimited | older | $29.99 | 1,879 72% | 56k | $1.7M (exactly $1,690,536) | Code Club AB |
| | Witchspire | · EA | $22.99 | 1,849 82% | 55k | $1.3M (exactly $1,275,255) | Envar Games |
| | Wicked Island | · EA | $34.99 | 1,194 76% | 36k | $1.3M (exactly $1,253,342) | RawDarkness |
| | Card Survival: Fantasy Forest | · EA | $21.99 | 1,135 76% | 34k | $749k (exactly $748,760) | WinterSpring Games |
| | Forgotten Seas | $24.99 | 475 75% | 14k | $356k (exactly $356,108) | Pangea Game Studios | |
| | Oppidum | $29.99 | 161 67% | 4.8k | $145k (exactly $144,852) | EP Games® | |
| | Whisper of the Swallows | · EA | $19.99 | 193 88% | 5.8k | $116k (exactly $115,742) | Blown Leaves |
| | Din's Champion | $19.99 | 160 85% | 4.8k | $96k (exactly $95,952) | Soldak Entertainment | |
| | Spirit Animal Survival | $19.99 | 96 62% | 2.9k | $58k (exactly $57,571) | TRUEFX GAMES |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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