Do I ship it?

GamesOpen World Survival CraftOpen World Survival Craft + Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Fantasy Open World Survival Craft?

Open World Survival Craft + Fantasy

Of 21 developers who shipped a Fantasy Open World Survival Craft in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 82 more are announced, ×6.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 9 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $40k, ×30 the market's $1.3k for a 9 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $9.3k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.8M, ×1375 the market median. Revenue is up 270% on the market; 82 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 29.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 270% on the market, 82 announced, ×6.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World Survival Craft + Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 21
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $104k → $43k → $1.0M → $4.9k → $356k → $12k (still earning) → $58k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World Survival Craft + Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 21
Bottom 30% $9.3k (exactly $9,291)
Median $40k (exactly $39,815)
Top 25% $356k (exactly $356,108)
Top 5% $1.9M (exactly $1,851,759)
Developers, 2 yr 21
Released games 86
Announced 82
Effort 9 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $19.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 270% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World Survival Craft
effort 9 / 10 · low · dedicated multiplayer servers over a huge content build
Fantasy
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
9 / 10 · studio only
Systems
Open World Survival Craft; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Crafting, Adventure, Base Building
Price point
$19.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $19.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 35,804 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $9.3k, median $40k, 1 in 4 over $350k, 1 in 20 over $1.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $9.3k. 6 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 82 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World Survival Craft with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $307k · 37 announced
  2. + Co-opPoor odds58 devs · median $515k · 127 announced
  3. + Online Co-OpPoor odds72 devs · median $217k · 139 announced
  4. + Immersive SimPoor odds14 devs · median $183k · 37 announced
  5. + PhysicsPoor odds8 devs · median $183k · 27 announced
  6. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $170k · 25 announced
  7. + MedievalPoor odds13 devs · median $154k · 37 announced
  8. + ShooterPoor odds25 devs · median $139k · 45 announced
  9. + PvPPoor odds22 devs · median $125k · 56 announced
  10. + Sci-fiPoor odds32 devs · median $124k · 76 announced
  11. + Character CustomizationPoor odds34 devs · median $116k · 60 announced
  12. + RPGPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced

All 54 pairs on the Open World Survival Craft page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Conan Exiles Enhanced older $39.99 79,741 78% 2.4M $96M (exactly $95,665,278) Funcom, Inflexion Games
RuneScape: Dragonwilds $29.99 28,071 81% 842k $25M (exactly $25,255,479) Jagex Ltd
Nightingale · EA older $29.99 15,338 66% 460k $14M (exactly $13,799,599) Inflexion Games
The Lord of the Rings: Return to Moria™ older $29.99 10,242 80% 307k $9.2M (exactly $9,214,727) Free Range Games
Dark and Light · EA older $17.99 10,577 51% 317k $5.7M (exactly $5,708,407) Snail Games USA
Citadel: Forged with Fire older $14.99 5,004 67% 150k $2.3M (exactly $2,250,299) Blue Isle Studios
Creativerse older $24.99 2,646 77% 79k $2.0M (exactly $1,983,706) Playful Corp.
Lost Skies $24.99 2,470 63% 74k $1.9M (exactly $1,851,759) Bossa Studios
Saleblazers · EA older $29.99 1,974 78% 59k $1.8M (exactly $1,776,008) AIRSTRAFE INTERACTIVE
Wurm Unlimited older $29.99 1,879 72% 56k $1.7M (exactly $1,690,536) Code Club AB
Witchspire · EA $22.99 1,849 82% 55k $1.3M (exactly $1,275,255) Envar Games
Wicked Island · EA $34.99 1,194 76% 36k $1.3M (exactly $1,253,342) RawDarkness
Card Survival: Fantasy Forest · EA $21.99 1,135 76% 34k $749k (exactly $748,760) WinterSpring Games
Forgotten Seas $24.99 475 75% 14k $356k (exactly $356,108) Pangea Game Studios
Oppidum $29.99 161 67% 4.8k $145k (exactly $144,852) EP Games®
Whisper of the Swallows · EA $19.99 193 88% 5.8k $116k (exactly $115,742) Blown Leaves
Din's Champion $19.99 160 85% 4.8k $96k (exactly $95,952) Soldak Entertainment
Spirit Animal Survival $19.99 96 62% 2.9k $58k (exactly $57,571) TRUEFX GAMES

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.