Do I ship it?

GamesMystery DungeonMystery Dungeon + Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Fantasy Mystery Dungeon?

Mystery Dungeon + Fantasy

Of 147 developers who shipped a Fantasy Mystery Dungeon in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 201 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.6k, ×5.6 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $420; 1 in 20 cleared $300k, ×633 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 201 games are announced against 71 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 201 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Mystery Dungeon + Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 147
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.4k → $3.0k → $2.2k → $3.3k → $2.6k → $1.2k → $1.6k (still earning) → $2.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Mystery Dungeon + Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 147
Bottom 30% $419 (exactly $419)
Median $2.6k (exactly $2,637)
Top 25% $25k (exactly $24,762)
Top 5% $301k (exactly $300,613)
Developers, 2 yr 147
Released games 449
Announced 201
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Mystery Dungeon
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Fantasy
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Mystery Dungeon; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Adventure, Dungeon Crawler
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Cute, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 11,380 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $420, median $2.6k, 1 in 4 over $24k, 1 in 20 over $300k.

3 in 10 developers made under $420. 8 in 10 of the 86 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 201 games are announced against 71 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Mystery Dungeon with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGStrong odds43 devs · median $21k · 23 announced
  2. + TacticalStrong odds20 devs · median $2.5k · 15 announced
  3. + Auto BattlerFair17 devs · median $13k · 16 announced
  4. + RomanceFair12 devs · median $5.8k · 10 announced
  5. + Perma DeathFair27 devs · median $2.7k · 29 announced
  6. + Tactical RPGFair30 devs · median $2.4k · 24 announced
  7. + Walking SimulatorFair34 devs · median $1.6k · 35 announced
  8. + SimulationFair57 devs · median $1.3k · 67 announced
  9. + Bullet HellFair14 devs · median $1.0k · 18 announced
  10. + Time ManagementFair11 devs · median $898 · 8 announced
  11. + HistoricalFair7 devs · median $719 · 10 announced
  12. + PhysicsFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced

All 116 pairs on the Mystery Dungeon page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Resonance: A Plague Tale Legacy $49.99 3,558 92% 107k $5.3M (exactly $5,335,933) Asobo Studio
Touhou Genso Wanderer -Reloaded- older $34.99 1,734 93% 52k $1.8M (exactly $1,820,180) AQUASTYLE
Hammerwatch II older $24.99 1,871 60% 56k $1.4M (exactly $1,402,689) Crackshell
Escape Dungeon 2 older $17.99 1,700 93% 51k $917k (exactly $917,490) Hide Games
In Verbis Virtus older $19.99 1,464 78% 44k $878k (exactly $877,961) Indomitus Games
FANTASIAN Neo Dimension $49.99 500 76% 15k $750k (exactly $749,850) Mistwalker Corporation
Stonemachia $19.99 1,244 95% 37k $746k (exactly $746,027) Crossfall Games
Vivid Knight older $14.99 1,635 89% 49k $735k (exactly $735,260) Asobism.Co.,Ltd
FALL IN LABYRINTH older $19.99 1,073 95% 32k $643k (exactly $643,478) JUKKAKU GAMES
Shattered Pixel Dungeon older $9.99 2,106 95% 63k $631k (exactly $631,168) Shattered Pixel
Spark in the Dark · EA $16.99 1,174 87% 35k $598k (exactly $598,388) Stellar Fish
Shiren the Wanderer: The Mystery Dungeon of Serpentcoil Island $39.99 470 85% 14k $564k (exactly $563,859) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
Rustil: Eternal Labyrinth Castle $18.99 950 71% 29k $541k (exactly $541,215) KTMG LLC.
Skull Horde $12.99 1,083 81% 32k $422k (exactly $422,045) 8BitSkull
Nightmare Knight ~Sacred Maiden & Fallen Magic~ $17.99 557 86% 17k $301k (exactly $300,613) orzPINEz
EXD - Extra Dimensional $29.99 316 82% 9.5k $284k (exactly $284,305) Lords of Illusion
TRADESMAN: Deal to Dealer $4.99 1,528 78% 46k $229k (exactly $228,742) AZAMATIKA

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.