Do I ship it?

GamesGun CustomizationGun Customization + Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Fantasy Gun Customization game?

Gun Customization + Fantasy

Of 46 developers who shipped a Fantasy Gun Customization game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 85 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $540, ×0.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $19k, ×31 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 85 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 85 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Gun Customization + Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 46
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $14k → $2.2k → $2.4k → $299 → $719 (still earning) → $1.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Gun Customization + Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 46
Bottom 30% $180 (exactly $180)
Median $538 (exactly $538)
Top 25% $2.9k (exactly $2,873)
Top 5% $19k (exactly $19,418)
Developers, 2 yr 46
Released games 118
Announced 85
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 90% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Gun Customization
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Fantasy
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Gun Customization; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Roguelite, Action Roguelike
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 1,185 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $540, 1 in 4 over $2.8k, 1 in 20 over $19k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 21 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 85 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Gun Customization with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Tower DefenseFair26 devs · median $958 · 32 announced
  2. + DystopianPoor odds16 devs · median $51k · 58 announced
  3. + Immersive SimPoor odds12 devs · median $25k · 44 announced
  4. + BuildingPoor odds13 devs · median $16k · 39 announced
  5. + Survival HorrorPoor odds26 devs · median $14k · 55 announced
  6. + ModernPoor odds18 devs · median $14k · 38 announced
  7. + MilitaryPoor odds50 devs · median $13k · 126 announced
  8. + StealthPoor odds20 devs · median $13k · 63 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds31 devs · median $11k · 92 announced
  10. + MechsPoor odds12 devs · median $11k · 32 announced
  11. + Resource ManagementPoor odds28 devs · median $11k · 71 announced
  12. + Base BuildingPoor odds23 devs · median $9.1k · 64 announced

All 93 pairs on the Gun Customization page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Spellmasons older $19.99 1,122 91% 34k $673k (exactly $672,863) Octavia Blue
That Time I Got Reincarnated as a Slime ISEKAI Chronicles older $49.99 294 52% 8.8k $441k (exactly $440,912) ZOC Co.,Ltd.
Warhammer 40,000: Dakka Squadron - Flyboyz Edition older $19.99 416 78% 12k $249k (exactly $249,475) Phosphor Game Studios
Anima : The Reign of Darkness older $11.99 613 69% 18k $220k (exactly $220,496) Redeev
Get To Work, Succubus-Chan! older $9.99 480 78% 14k $144k (exactly $143,856) SmallSqurriel, Eternal Alice Game
Machick 2 $6.99 606 88% 18k $127k (exactly $127,078) DeadPixel
LEVEL UP 80 older $39.99 99 79% 3.0k $119k (exactly $118,770) Galactic Geckon
Dreadhunter · EA older $24.99 141 77% 4.2k $106k (exactly $105,708) Trickster Arts
Slavania older $15.99 202 61% 6.1k $97k (exactly $96,899) FrostLeaf Games LLC
Machick older $6.99 208 84% 6.2k $44k (exactly $43,618) DeadPixel
Runehaven $9.99 119 91% 3.6k $36k (exactly $35,664) Cikoria Studio
Gunforged $8.99 72 80% 2.2k $19k (exactly $19,418) Firebelley
Turtle Riders $4.99 115 76% 3.5k $17k (exactly $17,216) Solenya
Ascendant $9.99 47 70% 1.4k $14k (exactly $14,086) Imagisphere
SPORTAL $7.99 57 94% 1.7k $14k (exactly $13,663) Sleepwalking Potatoes
Chumini: Tiny Army $4.99 82 93% 2.5k $12k (exactly $12,275) Guilloteam
Wish Me Well · EA $4.99 60 81% 1.8k $9.0k (exactly $8,982) Starrow Castles
Magical Hellhound Lust · EA $19.99 13 53% 390 $7.8k (exactly $7,796) Mildaponno
ALARIC $14.99 14 92% 420 $6.3k (exactly $6,296) Dominik Grigoras

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.