Do I ship it?

GamesExplorationExploration + Traditional Roguelike

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Exploration Traditional Roguelike?

Exploration + Traditional Roguelike

Of 31 developers who shipped an Exploration Traditional Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 52 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×1.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $390k, ×821 the market median. Revenue is up 20% on the market; 52 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 52 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Exploration + Traditional Roguelike
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 31
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $41k → $13k → $719 → $179 → $4.3k (still earning) → $449 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Exploration + Traditional Roguelike: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 31
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $719 (exactly $719)
Top 25% $7.7k (exactly $7,670)
Top 5% $390k (exactly $390,203)
Developers, 2 yr 31
Released games 72
Announced 52
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 190% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Traditional Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Exploration, Traditional Roguelike; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelike, RPG, Dungeon Crawler
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Pixel Graphics, 2D, Retro
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 9,502 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $720, 1 in 4 over $7.6k, 1 in 20 over $390k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 7 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 52 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Exploration with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair22 devs · median $8.1k · 26 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair31 devs · median $6.7k · 42 announced
  3. + SpaceshipsFair22 devs · median $3.5k · 28 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair122 devs · median $2.2k · 109 announced
  5. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 24 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds12 devs · median $192k · 35 announced
  7. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds23 devs · median $82k · 61 announced
  8. + Martial ArtsPoor odds25 devs · median $69k · 90 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds146 devs · median $58k · 354 announced
  10. + MMORPGPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced
  11. + FMVPoor odds45 devs · median $27k · 76 announced
  12. + FarmingPoor odds41 devs · median $24k · 58 announced

All 258 pairs on the Exploration page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Elin · EA $19.99 8,406 93% 252k $5.0M (exactly $5,041,078) Lafrontier
Soulash 2 · EA older $18.99 2,382 85% 71k $1.4M (exactly $1,357,025) Artur Smiarowski
Approaching Infinity $17.99 723 95% 22k $390k (exactly $390,203) IBOL
Cataclysm: Dark Days Ahead older $19.99 537 86% 16k $322k (exactly $322,039) CleverRaven
Ultimate ADOM - Caverns of Chaos older $19.99 429 47% 13k $257k (exactly $257,271) Thomas Biskup, Jochen Terstiege, Krzysz… (Thomas Biskup, Jochen Terstiege, Krzysztof Dycha, Lucas Dieguez, Bastian von Gostomski, Carola Sochiera, Björn Loesing)
Shattered Planet older $14.99 406 68% 12k $183k (exactly $182,578) Kitfox Games
Mainframe Defenders older $5.99 724 87% 22k $130k (exactly $130,103) Synthetic Domain
HyperRogue older $9.99 404 97% 12k $121k (exactly $121,079) Zeno Rogue
Dragon Quest Heroes: Torneko's Mystery Dungeon -Classic HD- $24.99 160 49% 4.8k $120k (exactly $119,952) Square Enix
Quest of Dungeons older $4.99 478 78% 14k $72k (exactly $71,557) David Amador
Rangedrifter · EA $14.99 27 100% 810 $12k (exactly $12,142) Max Schmidt
Deadzoned · EA $4.99 66 98% 2.0k $9.9k (exactly $9,880) caiys
鸭鸭大冒险 (Duck Duck Adventure) $8.99 29 93% 870 $7.8k (exactly $7,821) 清友工作室
DeAnima $9.99 26 84% 780 $7.8k (exactly $7,792) Steelgaze Studio
Alchemist's Alcove $7.99 32 96% 960 $7.7k (exactly $7,670) Nefarious Brew Games
A Tale of Silent Depths $9.99 21 80% 630 $6.3k (exactly $6,294) Crit42 Studio
Ricave $14.99 12 100% 360 $5.4k (exactly $5,396) Rogueatic Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.