Do I ship it?

GamesExplorationExploration + Tabletop

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Exploration Tabletop game?

Exploration + Tabletop

Of 55 developers who shipped an Exploration Tabletop game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 88 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.8 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $310k, ×657 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 88 games are announced against 37 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 88 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Exploration + Tabletop
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 55
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $12k → $1.1k → $2.7k → $1.9k → $836 → $4.5k → $479 (still earning) → $599 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Exploration + Tabletop: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 55
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,346)
Top 25% $22k (exactly $21,878)
Top 5% $312k (exactly $312,092)
Developers, 2 yr 55
Released games 186
Announced 88
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 95% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Tabletop
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Exploration, Tabletop; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Strategy, Board Game
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 13,373 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $21k, 1 in 20 over $310k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 9 in 10 of the 25 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 88 games are announced against 37 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Exploration with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair22 devs · median $8.1k · 26 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair31 devs · median $6.7k · 42 announced
  3. + SpaceshipsFair22 devs · median $3.5k · 28 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair122 devs · median $2.2k · 109 announced
  5. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 24 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds12 devs · median $192k · 35 announced
  7. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds23 devs · median $82k · 61 announced
  8. + Martial ArtsPoor odds25 devs · median $69k · 90 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds146 devs · median $58k · 354 announced
  10. + MMORPGPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced
  11. + FMVPoor odds45 devs · median $27k · 76 announced
  12. + FarmingPoor odds41 devs · median $24k · 58 announced

All 258 pairs on the Exploration page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Esoteric Ebb $24.99 8,719 95% 262k $6.5M (exactly $6,536,634) Christoffer Bodegård
Citizen Sleeper older $19.99 8,271 92% 248k $5.0M (exactly $4,960,119) Jump Over The Age
TaleSpire · EA older $24.99 4,391 89% 132k $3.3M (exactly $3,291,933) Bouncyrock Entertainment
BOOK OF HOURS older $24.99 4,129 89% 124k $3.1M (exactly $3,095,511) Weather Factory
Curious Expedition older $14.99 3,951 91% 119k $1.8M (exactly $1,776,765) Maschinen-Mensch
Citizen Sleeper 2: Starward Vector $24.99 2,358 91% 71k $1.8M (exactly $1,767,793) Jump Over The Age
Black Geyser: Couriers of Darkness older $29.99 924 74% 28k $831k (exactly $831,323) GrapeOcean Technologies
Munchkin Digital older $14.99 1,352 76% 41k $608k (exactly $607,994) Dire Wolf
Foretales older $19.99 779 87% 23k $467k (exactly $467,166) Alkemi
Nexus 5X older $14.99 884 90% 27k $398k (exactly $397,535) Whatboy Games
Card Cultivation $14.99 694 70% 21k $312k (exactly $312,092) DarkIndex
Stack to Ascension $12.99 331 54% 9.9k $129k (exactly $128,991) Stack to Ascension
Marisa of Liartop Mountain $14.99 286 84% 8.6k $129k (exactly $128,614) Alliance Arts, UnknownX
Duskpunk $19.99 171 91% 5.1k $103k (exactly $102,549) Clockwork Bird, James Patton
Factory Planner · EA $7.99 385 70% 12k $92k (exactly $92,284) Lebleby Games
Dark Quest 4 $19.99 136 75% 4.1k $82k (exactly $81,559) Brain Seal Ltd
Celestial Return $14.99 140 85% 4.2k $63k (exactly $62,958) Metaphor Games
Eyes of Hellfire · EA $9.99 153 70% 4.6k $46k (exactly $45,854) Gambrinous

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.