Do I ship it?

GamesExplorationExploration + Superhero

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Superhero Exploration game?

Exploration + Superhero

Only 11 developers shipped a Superhero Exploration game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Marvel's Spider-Man 2, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 25 more are announced, ×6.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $1.8k against a market of $1.5k. 25 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 1.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 25 announced, ×6.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Exploration + Superhero
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.2k → $89 → $8.4k → $3.7k → $9.4k → $22k
Outcomes for Exploration + Superhero: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $809 (exactly $809)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,797)
Top 25% $156k (exactly $155,800)
Top 5% $60M (exactly $60,169,370)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 53
Announced 25
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 45% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Superhero
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Exploration
Price point
$7.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 35,683 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $810, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $150k, 1 in 20 over $60M.

3 in 10 developers made under $810. 5 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 25 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Exploration with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair22 devs · median $8.1k · 26 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair31 devs · median $6.7k · 42 announced
  3. + SpaceshipsFair22 devs · median $3.5k · 28 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair122 devs · median $2.2k · 109 announced
  5. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 24 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds12 devs · median $192k · 35 announced
  7. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds23 devs · median $82k · 61 announced
  8. + Martial ArtsPoor odds25 devs · median $69k · 90 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds146 devs · median $58k · 354 announced
  10. + MMORPGPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced
  11. + FMVPoor odds45 devs · median $27k · 76 announced
  12. + FarmingPoor odds41 devs · median $24k · 58 announced

All 258 pairs on the Exploration page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Marvel’s Spider-Man Remastered older $59.99 101,879 96% 3.1M $183M (exactly $183,351,636) Insomniac Games, Nixxes Software
Marvel's Guardians of the Galaxy older $59.99 35,397 93% 1.1M $64M (exactly $63,703,981) Eidos-Montréal
Marvel's Spider-Man 2 $59.99 33,433 83% 1.0M $60M (exactly $60,169,370) Insomniac Games, Nixxes Software
Marvel’s Spider-Man: Miles Morales older $49.99 39,234 93% 1.2M $59M (exactly $58,839,230) Insomniac Games, Nixxes Software
DRAGON BALL: THE BREAKERS older $29.99 4,983 50% 149k $4.5M (exactly $4,483,205) Dimps Corporation
Lost Soul Aside™ $59.99 1,307 59% 39k $2.4M (exactly $2,352,208) Ultizero Games
9 Days older $14.99 2,198 72% 66k $988k (exactly $988,441) MVR
Dustborn older $29.99 578 70% 17k $520k (exactly $520,027) Red Thread Games
Amazing Frog? 2 · EA older $19.99 726 77% 22k $435k (exactly $435,382) Fayju
Superhero Simulator · EA $5.99 867 73% 26k $156k (exactly $155,800) mightyraccoon! Studios
Lethal Honor - Order of the Apocalypse $24.99 29 96% 870 $22k (exactly $21,741) Viral Studios
Rabbiman Adventures $14.99 21 100% 630 $9.4k (exactly $9,444) ISRACHEM LTD
Lone Warrior's Fist $5.99 10 100% 300 $1.8k (exactly $1,797) CreatiCell Games
SantaCorps 4 $4.99 9 88% 270 $1.3k (exactly $1,347) Virtuoso Neomedia
Puppet Seed $8.99 3 0% 90 $809 (exactly $809) Moosopolis Games
Spooky Monkey $5.99 3 100% 90 $539 (exactly $539) Xander Clinthorne
Mystic Warfare · EA $6.99 1 100% 30 $210 (exactly $210) SECRET PAPER

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.