Do I ship it?

GamesExplorationExploration + Sokoban

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Exploration Sokoban?

Exploration + Sokoban

Of 50 developers who shipped an Exploration Sokoban in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 72 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.0k, ×2.2 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $25k, ×53 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 72 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.2 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 72 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Exploration + Sokoban
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 50
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.5k → $29k → $3.4k → $359 → $1.1k → $9.1k → $1.3k (still earning) → $449 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Exploration + Sokoban: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 50
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.0k (exactly $1,048)
Top 25% $6.9k (exactly $6,866)
Top 5% $25k (exactly $25,299)
Developers, 2 yr 50
Released games 130
Announced 72
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Sokoban
effort 2 / 10 · high · grid pushing rules and level files

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Exploration, Sokoban; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Puzzle, Adventure, Logic
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Atmospheric, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 639 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.0k, 1 in 4 over $6.8k, 1 in 20 over $25k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. Nearly all of the 24 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 72 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Exploration with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair22 devs · median $8.1k · 26 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair31 devs · median $6.7k · 42 announced
  3. + SpaceshipsFair22 devs · median $3.5k · 28 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair122 devs · median $2.2k · 109 announced
  5. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 24 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds12 devs · median $192k · 35 announced
  7. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds23 devs · median $82k · 61 announced
  8. + Martial ArtsPoor odds25 devs · median $69k · 90 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds146 devs · median $58k · 354 announced
  10. + MMORPGPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced
  11. + FMVPoor odds45 devs · median $27k · 76 announced
  12. + FarmingPoor odds41 devs · median $24k · 58 announced

All 258 pairs on the Exploration page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Void Stranger older $11.99 3,307 91% 99k $1.2M (exactly $1,189,528) System Erasure
A Monster's Expedition older $19.99 1,594 94% 48k $956k (exactly $955,922) Draknek & Friends
Isles of Sea and Sky older $19.99 1,538 91% 46k $922k (exactly $922,339) Cicada Games
Paper Trail older $19.99 726 94% 22k $435k (exactly $435,382) Newfangled Games
Paquerette Down the Bunburrows older $11.99 1,115 96% 33k $401k (exactly $401,066) Bunstack
A Good Snowman Is Hard To Build older $14.99 679 96% 20k $305k (exactly $305,346) Alan Hazelden, Benjamin Davis
Ittle Dew older $19.99 481 92% 14k $288k (exactly $288,456) Ludosity
Linelith older $2.99 1,438 98% 43k $129k (exactly $128,989) Patrick Traynor
Seek Girl V older $1.99 920 72% 28k $55k (exactly $54,924) DSGame
Temple Of Snek older $14.99 102 90% 3.1k $46k (exactly $45,869) Aetheric Games
Puzzle Depot $19.99 61 100% 1.8k $37k (exactly $36,582) Laughing Manatee Games
4D Intuition $14.99 67 100% 2.0k $30k (exactly $30,130) Yu Gu (yugu233)
The Electrifying Incident: A Monster Mini-Expedition $4.99 169 93% 5.1k $25k (exactly $25,299) Draknek and Friends
Ligo $14.99 54 100% 1.6k $24k (exactly $24,284) Anthony Berleur
AiliA $11.99 66 89% 2.0k $24k (exactly $23,740) IceToad Studio LLC
Slip 'n Slime $9.99 76 94% 2.3k $23k (exactly $22,777) Wild Magic Studio
Sliding Hero $14.99 42 88% 1.3k $19k (exactly $18,887) Silent Chicken
Glowkeeper $14.99 42 97% 1.3k $19k (exactly $18,887) oolimry, bucketfish
Cat Squeeze $9.99 38 100% 1.1k $11k (exactly $11,389) Cattery Studio, Pone Games
Signal Maze $14.99 24 95% 720 $11k (exactly $10,793) theArkitect

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.