Do I ship it?

GamesExplorationExploration + Shoot 'Em Up

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Exploration Shoot 'Em Up?

Exploration + Shoot 'Em Up

Of 63 developers who shipped an Exploration Shoot 'Em Up in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 123 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360, ×0.8 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $92k, ×194 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 123 games are announced against 31 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 123 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Exploration + Shoot 'Em Up
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 63
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $776 → $2.9k → $2.7k → $2.7k → $1.3k → $359 → $299 (still earning) → $269 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Exploration + Shoot 'Em Up: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 63
Bottom 30% $119 (exactly $119)
Median $359 (exactly $359)
Top 25% $3.1k (exactly $3,118)
Top 5% $92k (exactly $92,289)
Developers, 2 yr 63
Released games 260
Announced 123
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Shoot 'Em Up
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Exploration, Shoot 'Em Up; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action Roguelike, Action-Adventure
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Retro
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 74% positive over 5,637 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $360, 1 in 4 over $3.1k, 1 in 20 over $92k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 8 in 10 of the 33 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 123 games are announced against 31 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Exploration with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair22 devs · median $8.1k · 26 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair31 devs · median $6.7k · 42 announced
  3. + SpaceshipsFair22 devs · median $3.5k · 28 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair122 devs · median $2.2k · 109 announced
  5. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 24 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds12 devs · median $192k · 35 announced
  7. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds23 devs · median $82k · 61 announced
  8. + Martial ArtsPoor odds25 devs · median $69k · 90 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds146 devs · median $58k · 354 announced
  10. + MMORPGPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced
  11. + FMVPoor odds45 devs · median $27k · 76 announced
  12. + FarmingPoor odds41 devs · median $24k · 58 announced

All 258 pairs on the Exploration page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Journey To The Savage Planet older $29.99 5,674 87% 170k $5.1M (exactly $5,104,898) Typhoon
Minishoot' Adventures older $14.99 7,818 97% 235k $3.5M (exactly $3,515,755) SoulGame Studio
Metro Awakening $29.99 3,013 73% 90k $2.7M (exactly $2,710,796) Vertigo Games
Squirrel with a Gun older $19.99 3,112 86% 93k $1.9M (exactly $1,866,266) Dee Dee Creations LLC
Badlands Crew - Drive, Command, Conquer $18.99 1,126 78% 34k $641k (exactly $641,482) Runner Duck
Atari 50: The Anniversary Celebration older $39.99 457 92% 14k $548k (exactly $548,263) Digital Eclipse
Insect Swarm older $6.99 2,491 84% 75k $522k (exactly $522,363) Parallel Portal
BLACKWOOD $24.99 565 46% 17k $424k (exactly $423,580) AttritoM7 Productions
The Knight Witch older $19.99 643 72% 19k $386k (exactly $385,607) Super Mega Team
Beat Hazard 3 older $19.99 586 84% 18k $351k (exactly $351,424) Cold Beam Games
Cyberwar: Neon City · EA $17.99 171 90% 5.1k $92k (exactly $92,289) Cyber Monkey Studios
SNAKE GAME ULTRA CORE $29.99 89 88% 2.7k $80k (exactly $80,073) Galactic Geckon
Mythical Concept STARNAUT $29.99 67 92% 2.0k $60k (exactly $60,280) crim Co., Ltd.
Super Roboy $14.99 109 93% 3.3k $49k (exactly $49,017) Vincent Penning
Zombie Rollerz: The Last Ship $9.99 139 75% 4.2k $42k (exactly $41,658) Zing Games Inc., 紫英互娱
GUNFIELD $4.99 249 95% 7.5k $37k (exactly $37,275) Shiv
Kritter: Defend Together $9.99 109 86% 3.3k $33k (exactly $32,667) LJF Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.