Do I ship it?

GamesExplorationExploration + Runner

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Exploration Runner?

Exploration + Runner

Of 131 developers who shipped an Exploration Runner in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 141 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $270 in the last 2 years and $360 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 4 / 10 build. 61 developers shipped in the last year and 141 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 45% on the market, 141 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Exploration + Runner
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 131
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $959 → $599 → $419 → $449 → $180 → $299 → $360 (still earning) → $60 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Exploration + Runner: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 131
Bottom 30% $60 (exactly $60)
Median $269 (exactly $269)
Top 25% $1.3k (exactly $1,254)
Top 5% $22k (exactly $22,491)
Developers, 2 yr 131
Released games 368
Announced 141
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 45% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Runner
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Exploration, Runner; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, Platformer
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Colorful, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 13,755 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $60, median $270, 1 in 4 over $1.2k, 1 in 20 over $22k.

3 in 10 developers made under $60. 9 in 10 of the 88 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 141 games are announced against 61 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Exploration with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair22 devs · median $8.1k · 26 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair31 devs · median $6.7k · 42 announced
  3. + SpaceshipsFair22 devs · median $3.5k · 28 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair122 devs · median $2.2k · 109 announced
  5. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 24 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds12 devs · median $192k · 35 announced
  7. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds23 devs · median $82k · 61 announced
  8. + Martial ArtsPoor odds25 devs · median $69k · 90 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds146 devs · median $58k · 354 announced
  10. + MMORPGPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced
  11. + FMVPoor odds45 devs · median $27k · 76 announced
  12. + FarmingPoor odds41 devs · median $24k · 58 announced

All 258 pairs on the Exploration page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Haste $19.99 12,690 92% 381k $7.6M (exactly $7,610,193) Landfall
Phantom Abyss older $19.99 1,962 81% 59k $1.2M (exactly $1,176,611) Team WIBY
Last Room older $29.99 953 73% 29k $857k (exactly $857,414) Quantum Forge Studios
ALTF4 older $2.99 9,452 80% 284k $848k (exactly $847,844) PUMPKIM
Shio older $11.99 1,270 78% 38k $457k (exactly $456,819) Coconut Island Studio
TASOMACHI: Behind the Twilight older $19.99 529 75% 16k $317k (exactly $317,241) Orbital Express
VR Skater older $19.99 222 86% 6.7k $133k (exactly $133,133) DEFICIT Games
The Fancy Pants Adventures: Classic Pack · EA older $9.99 414 84% 12k $124k (exactly $124,076) Borne Games
Relooted $14.99 257 87% 7.7k $116k (exactly $115,573) Nyamakop
Hans older $4.99 741 85% 22k $111k (exactly $110,928) at0m
Rocket Boots Mania $14.99 229 99% 6.9k $103k (exactly $102,981) Luma Play
Ikarus Parkour $12.99 195 81% 5.9k $76k (exactly $75,992) Vanja Aleksić
JETRUNNER $9.99 118 96% 3.5k $35k (exactly $35,365) Riddlebit Software
Care Bears: To The Rescue $14.99 54 98% 1.6k $24k (exactly $24,284) Polygoat
Sex on the beach $24.99 30 63% 900 $22k (exactly $22,491) Games For Pleasure
Zardy's Cave $7.99 84 80% 2.5k $20k (exactly $20,135) Full Trek Media
HoloRun $4.99 76 57% 2.3k $11k (exactly $11,377) Pixfox
Memori · EA $14.99 22 95% 660 $9.9k (exactly $9,893) PracticalNPC

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.