Do I ship it?

GamesExplorationExploration + Quick-Time Events

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Exploration Quick-Time Events game?

Exploration + Quick-Time Events

Of 83 developers who shipped an Exploration Quick-Time Events game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 121 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×1.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $51k, ×109 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 121 games are announced against 54 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.5 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 121 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Exploration + Quick-Time Events
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 83
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $446 → $239 → $148 → $32k → $1.0k → $838 → $599 (still earning) → $598 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Exploration + Quick-Time Events: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 83
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $719 (exactly $719)
Top 25% $3.4k (exactly $3,443)
Top 5% $52k (exactly $51,950)
Developers, 2 yr 83
Released games 173
Announced 121
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 85% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Quick-Time Events
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Exploration, Quick-Time Events; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, RPG, Puzzle
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $13.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $13.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 6,648 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $720, 1 in 4 over $3.4k, 1 in 20 over $51k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 8 in 10 of the 37 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 121 games are announced against 54 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Exploration with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair22 devs · median $8.1k · 26 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair31 devs · median $6.7k · 42 announced
  3. + SpaceshipsFair22 devs · median $3.5k · 28 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair122 devs · median $2.2k · 109 announced
  5. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 24 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds12 devs · median $192k · 35 announced
  7. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds23 devs · median $82k · 61 announced
  8. + Martial ArtsPoor odds25 devs · median $69k · 90 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds146 devs · median $58k · 354 announced
  10. + MMORPGPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced
  11. + FMVPoor odds45 devs · median $27k · 76 announced
  12. + FarmingPoor odds41 devs · median $24k · 58 announced

All 258 pairs on the Exploration page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Tomb Raider Game of the Year older $19.99 173,270 95% 5.2M $104M (exactly $103,910,019) Crystal Dynamics, Eidos-Montréal, Feral… (Crystal Dynamics, Eidos-Montréal, Feral Interactive (Mac), Nixxes)
The Beast Inside older $24.99 10,528 83% 316k $7.9M (exactly $7,892,842) Illusion Ray
Until Dawn™ $59.99 3,564 82% 107k $6.4M (exactly $6,414,131) Ballistic Moon
Shenmue I & II older $29.99 2,144 89% 64k $1.9M (exactly $1,928,957) D3T
恋爱单选题 older $10.99 2,424 81% 73k $799k (exactly $799,193) 无忧传媒
The Inn-Sanity $7.99 1,561 96% 47k $374k (exactly $374,172) Steppe Hare Studio
The Bad Kids older $7.99 577 75% 17k $138k (exactly $138,307) Aluba Van+
Eyes: The Horror Game older $4.99 923 90% 28k $138k (exactly $138,173) Fearless Games
Didnapper 2 older $19.99 184 96% 5.5k $110k (exactly $110,345) DID Games
Rally Arcade Classics $19.99 125 79% 3.8k $75k (exactly $74,962) NETK2GAMES
我的同事不对劲 $8.99 215 89% 6.5k $58k (exactly $57,986) 11J Studio
KunKunNest $3.99 434 95% 13k $52k (exactly $51,950) JNTM, KunKunRoom, 鸡你太美
Nocan's Quest: Sex Gold Glory $9.99 167 69% 5.0k $50k (exactly $50,050) Kinky Business Group
蜀汉再临:源起 Restart ShuHan Dynasty:Origin $3.99 357 76% 11k $43k (exactly $42,733) 浙江海蕊盈信网络科技有限公司
Neon Blood $17.99 73 60% 2.2k $39k (exactly $39,398) ChaoticBrain Studios
U.N.P.O.C. Vessel of Opportunity $12.99 70 68% 2.1k $27k (exactly $27,279) Danny Ziemer
Sex Knight~Prey of the Lustful Nobles~ $10.99 82 82% 2.5k $27k (exactly $27,035) アイオライト

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.