Do I ship it?

GamesExplorationExploration + Puzzle Platformer

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Exploration Puzzle Platformer?

Exploration + Puzzle Platformer

Of 496 developers who shipped an Exploration Puzzle Platformer in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,002 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.9 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $150k, ×317 the market median. Revenue is up 35% on the market; 1,002 games are announced against 250 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 35% on the market, 1,002 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Exploration + Puzzle Platformer
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 496
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.3k → $2.4k → $3.0k → $897 → $959 → $1.1k → $1.1k (still earning) → $299 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Exploration + Puzzle Platformer: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 496
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $899 (exactly $899)
Top 25% $7.2k (exactly $7,196)
Top 5% $151k (exactly $150,650)
Developers, 2 yr 496
Released games 1,557
Announced 1,002
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 35% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Puzzle Platformer
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Exploration, Puzzle Platformer; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Puzzle, Platformer
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 2D, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 29,838 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $900, 1 in 4 over $7.1k, 1 in 20 over $150k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 297 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,002 games are announced against 250 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Exploration with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair22 devs · median $8.1k · 26 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair31 devs · median $6.7k · 42 announced
  3. + SpaceshipsFair22 devs · median $3.5k · 28 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair122 devs · median $2.2k · 109 announced
  5. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 24 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds12 devs · median $192k · 35 announced
  7. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds23 devs · median $82k · 61 announced
  8. + Martial ArtsPoor odds25 devs · median $69k · 90 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds146 devs · median $58k · 354 announced
  10. + MMORPGPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced
  11. + FMVPoor odds45 devs · median $27k · 76 announced
  12. + FarmingPoor odds41 devs · median $24k · 58 announced

All 258 pairs on the Exploration page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
It Takes Two older $39.99 218,492 95% 6.6M $262M (exactly $262,124,852) Hazelight Studios
Celeste older $19.99 132,072 97% 4.0M $79M (exactly $79,203,578) Maddy Makes Games Inc., Extremely OK Ga… (Maddy Makes Games Inc., Extremely OK Games, Ltd.)
GRIS older $14.99 83,857 96% 2.5M $38M (exactly $37,710,493) Nomada Studio
Chants of Sennaar older $19.99 30,416 98% 912k $18M (exactly $18,240,475) Rundisc
ANIMAL WELL older $24.99 22,814 95% 684k $17M (exactly $17,103,656) Billy Basso
Superliminal older $19.99 28,428 94% 853k $17M (exactly $17,048,272) Pillow Castle
The Talos Principle 2 older $29.99 12,478 94% 374k $11M (exactly $11,226,457) Croteam
FAR: Lone Sails older $14.99 24,474 95% 734k $11M (exactly $11,005,958) Okomotive
Viewfinder older $24.99 11,901 94% 357k $8.9M (exactly $8,922,180) Sad Owl Studios
Chained Together older $4.99 54,747 89% 1.6M $8.2M (exactly $8,195,626) Anegar Games, Lab42
Farever · EA $19.99 8,968 75% 269k $5.4M (exactly $5,378,110) Shiro Games
ANTONBLAST $19.99 3,943 95% 118k $2.4M (exactly $2,364,617) Summitsphere
Öoo $9.99 6,575 99% 197k $2.0M (exactly $1,970,528) NamaTakahashi, tiny cactus studio, Tsuy… (NamaTakahashi, tiny cactus studio, Tsuyomi)
Disney Epic Mickey: Rebrushed $39.99 1,275 93% 38k $1.5M (exactly $1,529,618) Purple Lamp
LEGO® Voyagers $24.99 1,859 88% 56k $1.4M (exactly $1,393,692) Light Brick Studio
SpongeBob SquarePants: Titans of the Tide $39.99 1,151 93% 35k $1.4M (exactly $1,380,855) Purple Lamp
Tomb Raider IV-VI Remastered $29.99 1,507 89% 45k $1.4M (exactly $1,355,848) Aspyr, Crystal Dynamics
Supraworld · EA $29.99 1,471 91% 44k $1.3M (exactly $1,323,459) Supra Games
Monument Valley 3 $14.99 2,155 93% 65k $969k (exactly $969,104) ustwo games
Spirit of the North 2 $29.99 934 85% 28k $840k (exactly $840,320) Infuse Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.