Do I ship it?

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Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Exploration Programming game?

Exploration + Programming

Only 19 developers shipped an Exploration Programming game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Desynced, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 47 more are announced, ×4.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×2.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $1.6M, ×3559 the market median. Revenue is up 3890% on the market; 47 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 3890% on the market, 47 announced, ×4.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Exploration + Programming
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 19
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.5k → $719 → $1.0k → $1.2k → $239 → $41k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Exploration + Programming: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 19
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Top 25% $59k (exactly $59,226)
Top 5% $1.7M (exactly $1,690,536)
Developers, 2 yr 19
Released games 71
Announced 47
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 3890% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Programming
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Exploration, Programming; all of the top 25% also carry Automation, Building, Sandbox
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 4,242 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $59k, 1 in 20 over $1.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 8 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 47 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Exploration with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair22 devs · median $8.1k · 26 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair31 devs · median $6.7k · 42 announced
  3. + SpaceshipsFair22 devs · median $3.5k · 28 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair122 devs · median $2.2k · 109 announced
  5. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 24 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds12 devs · median $192k · 35 announced
  7. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds23 devs · median $82k · 61 announced
  8. + Martial ArtsPoor odds25 devs · median $69k · 90 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds146 devs · median $58k · 354 announced
  10. + MMORPGPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced
  11. + FMVPoor odds45 devs · median $27k · 76 announced
  12. + FarmingPoor odds41 devs · median $24k · 58 announced

All 258 pairs on the Exploration page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Stormworks: Build and Rescue 2020 · $41M Starbase 2021 · EA · $6.5M Juno: New Origins 2023 · $1.9M Desynced 2026 · $1.7M Arctic Eggs 2024 · $1.6M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Stormworks: Build and Rescue older $24.99 54,649 90% 1.6M $41M (exactly $40,970,355) Geometa
Starbase · EA older $34.99 6,217 56% 187k $6.5M (exactly $6,525,985) Frozenbyte
Juno: New Origins older $19.99 3,085 89% 93k $1.9M (exactly $1,850,074) Jundroo, LLC
Desynced $29.99 1,879 79% 56k $1.7M (exactly $1,690,536) Stage Games Inc.
Arctic Eggs older $9.99 5,343 95% 160k $1.6M (exactly $1,601,297) The Water Museum, cockydoody, abmarnie,… (The Water Museum, cockydoody, abmarnie, Cameron Ginex)
Duskers older $19.99 2,304 90% 69k $1.4M (exactly $1,381,709) Misfits Attic
Nimbatus - The Space Drone Constructor older $19.99 1,758 78% 53k $1.1M (exactly $1,054,273) Stray Fawn Studio
SimplePlanes 2 · EA $19.99 1,316 92% 39k $789k (exactly $789,205) Jundroo, LLC
The Magic Circle older $19.99 1,080 91% 32k $648k (exactly $647,676) Question
Quadrilateral Cowboy older $19.99 897 92% 27k $538k (exactly $537,931) Blendo Games
Omega Crafter $24.99 529 77% 16k $397k (exactly $396,591) Preferred Networks
Code: Terraform · EA $14.99 252 85% 7.6k $113k (exactly $113,324) AppsMafia
Icaria $24.99 79 75% 2.4k $59k (exactly $59,226) Blindsight Games LLC
Word Game World $11.99 114 62% 3.4k $41k (exactly $41,006) Team9
You Are The Code $9.99 40 100% 1.2k $12k (exactly $11,988) ThinkWithGames
Signal Maze $14.99 24 95% 720 $11k (exactly $10,793) theArkitect
Cyber Academy · EA $11.99 5 100% 150 $1.8k (exactly $1,798) JinjaGames
ESC (Electronics Security Company) $9.99 4 100% 120 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) Electronics Security Company

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.