Do I ship it?

GamesExplorationExploration + Platformer

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Exploration Platformer?

Exploration + Platformer

Of 820 developers who shipped an Exploration Platformer in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,737 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.7k, ×3.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $370k, ×794 the market median. Revenue is up 40% on the market; 1,737 games are announced against 437 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 40% on the market, 1,737 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Exploration + Platformer
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 820
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.5k → $2.2k → $2.1k → $1.3k → $2.4k → $1.6k → $1.8k (still earning) → $807 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Exploration + Platformer: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 820
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $1.7k (exactly $1,650)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $12,592)
Top 5% $377k (exactly $377,211)
Developers, 2 yr 820
Released games 2,663
Announced 1,737
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 40% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Platformer
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Exploration, Platformer; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, Action-Adventure
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 2D, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 749,460 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.7k, 1 in 4 over $12k, 1 in 20 over $370k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 9 in 10 of the 478 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,737 games are announced against 437 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Exploration with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair22 devs · median $8.1k · 26 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair31 devs · median $6.7k · 42 announced
  3. + SpaceshipsFair22 devs · median $3.5k · 28 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair122 devs · median $2.2k · 109 announced
  5. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 24 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds12 devs · median $192k · 35 announced
  7. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds23 devs · median $82k · 61 announced
  8. + Martial ArtsPoor odds25 devs · median $69k · 90 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds146 devs · median $58k · 354 announced
  10. + MMORPGPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced
  11. + FMVPoor odds45 devs · median $27k · 76 announced
  12. + FarmingPoor odds41 devs · median $24k · 58 announced

All 258 pairs on the Exploration page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Terraria older $9.99 1,240,388 97% 37M $372M (exactly $371,744,284) Re-Logic
It Takes Two older $39.99 218,492 95% 6.6M $262M (exactly $262,124,852) Hazelight Studios
Hollow Knight: Silksong $19.99 386,977 89% 12M $232M (exactly $232,070,107) Team Cherry
Hollow Knight older $14.99 502,960 96% 15M $226M (exactly $226,181,112) Team Cherry
STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™ older $39.99 153,782 88% 4.6M $184M (exactly $184,492,265) Respawn Entertainment
Ori and the Will of the Wisps older $29.99 136,019 96% 4.1M $122M (exactly $122,376,294) Moon Studios GmbH
Tomb Raider Game of the Year older $19.99 173,270 95% 5.2M $104M (exactly $103,910,019) Crystal Dynamics, Eidos-Montréal, Feral… (Crystal Dynamics, Eidos-Montréal, Feral Interactive (Mac), Nixxes)
Celeste older $19.99 132,072 97% 4.0M $79M (exactly $79,203,578) Maddy Makes Games Inc., Extremely OK Ga… (Maddy Makes Games Inc., Extremely OK Games, Ltd.)
PEAK $7.99 301,964 94% 9.1M $72M (exactly $72,380,771) Team PEAK
UNCHARTED™: Legacy of Thieves Collection older $49.99 29,422 90% 883k $44M (exactly $44,124,173) Naughty Dog LLC, Iron Galaxy Studios
Indiana Jones and the Great Circle $69.99 13,058 89% 392k $27M (exactly $27,417,883) MachineGames
Little Nightmares III $39.99 10,165 46% 305k $12M (exactly $12,194,950) Supermassive Games
Haste $19.99 12,690 92% 381k $7.6M (exactly $7,610,193) Landfall
Farever · EA $19.99 8,968 75% 269k $5.4M (exactly $5,378,110) Shiro Games
Mandragora: Whispers of the Witch Tree $39.99 3,026 75% 91k $3.6M (exactly $3,630,292) Primal Game Studio
MOTORSLICE $19.99 5,467 85% 164k $3.3M (exactly $3,278,560) Regular Studio
MIO: Memories in Orbit $19.99 4,300 83% 129k $2.6M (exactly $2,578,710) Douze Dixièmes
Revenge of the Savage Planet $29.99 2,845 86% 85k $2.6M (exactly $2,559,646) Raccoon Logic Studios Inc.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.