Do I ship it?

Games › Exploration › Exploration + Outbreak Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Exploration Outbreak Sim?

Exploration + Outbreak Sim

Of 26 developers who shipped an Exploration Outbreak Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 53 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $630, ×1.3 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $890k, ×1880 the market median. Revenue is up 410% on the market; 53 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 410% on the market, 53 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Exploration + Outbreak Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 26
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.5k → $150 → $2.7k → $4.0k → $298 → $629 → $1.3k (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Exploration + Outbreak Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 26
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $629 (exactly $629)
Top 25% $1.8k (exactly $1,798)
Top 5% $893k (exactly $893,157)
Developers, 2 yr 26
Released games 75
Announced 53
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 410% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Outbreak Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Exploration, Outbreak Sim; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Base Building, Simulation, Survival
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 5,584 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $630, 1 in 4 over $1.7k, 1 in 20 over $890k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 53 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Exploration with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair22 devs · median $8.1k · 26 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair31 devs · median $6.7k · 42 announced
  3. + SpaceshipsFair22 devs · median $3.5k · 28 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair122 devs · median $2.2k · 109 announced
  5. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 24 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds12 devs · median $192k · 35 announced
  7. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds23 devs · median $82k · 61 announced
  8. + Martial ArtsPoor odds25 devs · median $69k · 90 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds146 devs · median $58k · 354 announced
  10. + MMORPGPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced
  11. + FMVPoor odds45 devs · median $27k · 76 announced
  12. + FarmingPoor odds41 devs · median $24k · 58 announced

All 258 pairs on the Exploration page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

60 Seconds! Reatomized 2019 · $5.5M 60 Seconds! 2015 · $2.8M Dread Dawn 2024 · $1.3M 60 Parsecs! 2018 · $992k Survival Log 2026 · $893k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
60 Seconds! Reatomized older $9.99 18,362 94% 551k $5.5M (exactly $5,503,091) Robot Gentleman
60 Seconds! older $8.99 10,491 84% 315k $2.8M (exactly $2,829,423) Robot Gentleman
Dread Dawn $19.99 2,113 71% 63k $1.3M (exactly $1,267,166) Kioop
60 Parsecs! older $9.99 3,310 90% 99k $992k (exactly $992,007) Robot Gentleman
Survival Log $10.99 2,709 82% 81k $893k (exactly $893,157) Midnight Workshop
MOLDRISE $11.99 486 96% 15k $175k (exactly $174,814) Raffaele Picca
EVOTINCTION older $29.99 173 86% 5.2k $156k (exactly $155,648) Spikewave Games
Pestis older $24.99 88 77% 2.6k $66k (exactly $65,974) DIEDEMOR STUDIO GAMES
ZOMBUTCHER: Monster Business Simulator $12.99 135 69% 4.1k $53k (exactly $52,610) ODIUS
Rebirth evolution older $8.99 125 61% 3.8k $34k (exactly $33,712) 异界游网络科技
Embers of the Night $8.99 91 73% 2.7k $25k (exactly $24,543) 巨浪游戏
Backrooms: Partygoers $11.99 11 90% 330 $4.0k (exactly $3,957) Mascot Bro Studio
Sandbox Apocalypse · EA $11.99 5 80% 150 $1.8k (exactly $1,798) 7Druids GmbH
Augmented Fear $9.99 5 100% 150 $1.5k (exactly $1,498) OneFurInTheBox
Get Clucked $2.99 15 93% 450 $1.3k (exactly $1,346) ThatCarrotFella
Moonlit Nights · EA $2.99 14 64% 420 $1.3k (exactly $1,256) Umut Bora

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.