Do I ship it?

GamesExplorationExploration + Nature

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Nature Exploration game?

Exploration + Nature

Of 691 developers who shipped a Nature Exploration game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,550 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×2.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $630k, ×1329 the market median. Revenue is up 50% on the market; 1,550 games are announced against 410 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 50% on the market, 1,550 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Exploration + Nature
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 691
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.2k → $1.9k → $1.8k → $1.2k → $1.2k → $1.4k → $1.9k (still earning) → $779 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Exploration + Nature: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 691
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Top 25% $9.9k (exactly $9,890)
Top 5% $631k (exactly $631,042)
Developers, 2 yr 691
Released games 1,952
Announced 1,550
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 50% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Nature
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Exploration; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Simulation, Open World
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 3D, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 119,232 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $9.8k, 1 in 20 over $630k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 369 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,550 games are announced against 410 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Exploration with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair22 devs · median $8.1k · 26 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair31 devs · median $6.7k · 42 announced
  3. + SpaceshipsFair22 devs · median $3.5k · 28 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair122 devs · median $2.2k · 109 announced
  5. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 24 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds12 devs · median $192k · 35 announced
  7. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds23 devs · median $82k · 61 announced
  8. + Martial ArtsPoor odds25 devs · median $69k · 90 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds146 devs · median $58k · 354 announced
  10. + MMORPGPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced
  11. + FMVPoor odds45 devs · median $27k · 76 announced
  12. + FarmingPoor odds41 devs · median $24k · 58 announced

All 258 pairs on the Exploration page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Far Cry® 5 older $59.99 172,897 81% 5.2M $311M (exactly $311,162,731) Ubisoft Montreal, Red Storm, Ubisoft Sh… (Ubisoft Montreal, Red Storm, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Toronto, Ubisoft Kiev)
ICARUS older $34.99 55,849 75% 1.7M $59M (exactly $58,624,695) RocketWerkz
Microsoft Flight Simulator 2024 $69.99 21,633 59% 649k $45M (exactly $45,422,810) Asobo Studio
SnowRunner older $29.99 46,343 90% 1.4M $42M (exactly $41,694,797) Saber Interactive
Maneater older $39.99 21,790 87% 654k $26M (exactly $26,141,463) Tripwire Interactive
WILD HEARTS™ older $69.99 10,626 48% 319k $22M (exactly $22,311,412) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Kena: Bridge of Spirits older $39.99 16,701 91% 501k $20M (exactly $20,036,190) Ember Lab
Big Walk $19.99 32,470 95% 974k $19M (exactly $19,472,259) House House
RoadCraft $39.99 13,527 74% 406k $16M (exactly $16,228,342) Saber Interactive
Ancestors: The Humankind Odyssey older $39.99 9,794 81% 294k $12M (exactly $11,749,862) Panache Digital Games
WolfQuest: Anniversary Edition $29.99 11,511 97% 345k $10M (exactly $10,356,447) eduweb
Two Point Museum $29.99 9,626 95% 289k $8.7M (exactly $8,660,512) Two Point Studios
The Wandering Village $29.99 7,734 91% 232k $7.0M (exactly $6,958,280) Stray Fawn Studio
Railroads Online $29.99 5,410 75% 162k $4.9M (exactly $4,867,377) Stefan Kelnberger
Len's Island $24.99 5,935 82% 178k $4.4M (exactly $4,449,470) Flow Studio
Longvinter $19.99 6,951 68% 209k $4.2M (exactly $4,168,515) Uuvana Studios
My Little Puppy $24.99 4,435 97% 133k $3.3M (exactly $3,324,920) Dreamotion Inc.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.