Do I ship it?

GamesExplorationExploration + Mythology

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mythological Exploration game?

Exploration + Mythology

Of 182 developers who shipped a Mythological Exploration game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 442 more are announced, ×4.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.4k, ×2.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $690k, ×1103 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 442 games are announced against 93 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 442 announced, ×4.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Exploration + Mythology
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 182
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.6k → $3.9k → $1.3k → $1.4k → $4.3k → $1.2k → $600 (still earning) → $3.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Exploration + Mythology: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 182
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $1.4k (exactly $1,440)
Top 25% $23k (exactly $22,664)
Top 5% $693k (exactly $692,654)
Developers, 2 yr 182
Released games 458
Announced 442
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Mythology
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Exploration; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, RPG
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Atmospheric, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 498,592 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.4k, 1 in 4 over $22k, 1 in 20 over $690k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 111 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 442 games are announced against 93 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Exploration with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair22 devs · median $8.1k · 26 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair31 devs · median $6.7k · 42 announced
  3. + SpaceshipsFair22 devs · median $3.5k · 28 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair122 devs · median $2.2k · 109 announced
  5. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 24 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds12 devs · median $192k · 35 announced
  7. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds23 devs · median $82k · 61 announced
  8. + Martial ArtsPoor odds25 devs · median $69k · 90 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds146 devs · median $58k · 354 announced
  10. + MMORPGPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced
  11. + FMVPoor odds45 devs · median $27k · 76 announced
  12. + FarmingPoor odds41 devs · median $24k · 58 announced

All 258 pairs on the Exploration page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Valheim $29.99 464,893 94% 14M $418M (exactly $418,264,232) Iron Gate AB
Assassin's Creed® Odyssey older $59.99 172,149 89% 5.2M $310M (exactly $309,816,555) Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Bucharest, Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Kiev, Ubisoft Shanghai)
Assassin's Creed® Origins older $59.99 119,764 85% 3.6M $216M (exactly $215,539,271) Ubisoft Montreal
God of War older $49.99 129,712 95% 3.9M $195M (exactly $194,529,086) Santa Monica Studio, Jetpack Interactive
鬼谷八荒 Tale of Immortal older $19.99 190,184 56% 5.7M $114M (exactly $114,053,345) 鬼谷工作室
Assassin's Creed Valhalla older $59.99 41,083 70% 1.2M $74M (exactly $73,937,075) Ubisoft Montreal
Chants of Sennaar older $19.99 30,416 98% 912k $18M (exactly $18,240,475) Rundisc
Soulmask $29.99 18,445 76% 553k $17M (exactly $16,594,966) CampFire Studio
Tribes of Midgard older $19.99 17,465 76% 524k $10M (exactly $10,473,760) Norsfell
Bramble: The Mountain King older $29.99 6,512 94% 195k $5.9M (exactly $5,858,846) Dimfrost Studio
Aethermancer · EA $25.99 2,585 91% 78k $2.0M (exactly $2,015,524) moi rai games
The Legend of Khiimori · EA $29.99 1,929 82% 58k $1.7M (exactly $1,735,521) Aesir Interactive, NightinGames
Yaoling: Mythical Journey $19.99 2,854 90% 86k $1.7M (exactly $1,711,544) RAYKA STUDIO
Ascension · EA $19.99 2,437 60% 73k $1.5M (exactly $1,461,469) Element Game 微元游戏
Labyrinth Of The Demon King $19.99 2,116 92% 63k $1.3M (exactly $1,268,965) J. R. Hudepohl
Spirit of the North 2 $29.99 934 85% 28k $840k (exactly $840,320) Infuse Studio
Stonemachia $19.99 1,244 95% 37k $746k (exactly $746,027) Crossfall Games
One-Eyed Likho $19.99 1,155 93% 35k $693k (exactly $692,654) Morteshka

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.