Do I ship it?

GamesExplorationExploration + Mystery Dungeon

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Exploration Mystery Dungeon?

Exploration + Mystery Dungeon

Of 193 developers who shipped an Exploration Mystery Dungeon in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 289 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, ×1.3 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $160k, ×346 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 289 games are announced against 105 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 289 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Exploration + Mystery Dungeon
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 193
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.2k → $1.5k → $838 → $1.2k → $538 → $898 → $298 (still earning) → $719 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Exploration + Mystery Dungeon: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 193
Bottom 30% $148 (exactly $148)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $3.6k (exactly $3,594)
Top 5% $164k (exactly $164,426)
Developers, 2 yr 193
Released games 543
Announced 289
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Mystery Dungeon
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Exploration, Mystery Dungeon; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, Action-Adventure
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 16,544 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $600, 1 in 4 over $3.5k, 1 in 20 over $160k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 106 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 289 games are announced against 105 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Exploration with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair22 devs · median $8.1k · 26 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair31 devs · median $6.7k · 42 announced
  3. + SpaceshipsFair22 devs · median $3.5k · 28 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair122 devs · median $2.2k · 109 announced
  5. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 24 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds12 devs · median $192k · 35 announced
  7. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds23 devs · median $82k · 61 announced
  8. + Martial ArtsPoor odds25 devs · median $69k · 90 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds146 devs · median $58k · 354 announced
  10. + MMORPGPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced
  11. + FMVPoor odds45 devs · median $27k · 76 announced
  12. + FarmingPoor odds41 devs · median $24k · 58 announced

All 258 pairs on the Exploration page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Elin · EA $19.99 8,406 93% 252k $5.0M (exactly $5,041,078) Lafrontier
Reventure older $12.34 8,451 95% 254k $3.1M (exactly $3,128,560) Pixelatto
The Classrooms · EA older $12.99 3,040 89% 91k $1.2M (exactly $1,184,688) Xefier Games, Hillcrest Games Inc.
In Verbis Virtus older $19.99 1,464 78% 44k $878k (exactly $877,961) Indomitus Games
Stonemachia $19.99 1,244 95% 37k $746k (exactly $746,027) Crossfall Games
FALL IN LABYRINTH older $19.99 1,073 95% 32k $643k (exactly $643,478) JUKKAKU GAMES
Spark in the Dark · EA $16.99 1,174 87% 35k $598k (exactly $598,388) Stellar Fish
We Are The Dwarves older $14.99 1,072 75% 32k $482k (exactly $482,078) Whale Rock Games
Skull Horde $12.99 1,083 81% 32k $422k (exactly $422,045) 8BitSkull
The Fall of the Dungeon Guardians - Enhanced Edition older $19.99 625 83% 19k $375k (exactly $374,812) Mana Games
EXD - Extra Dimensional $29.99 316 82% 9.5k $284k (exactly $284,305) Lords of Illusion
The Coma 2B: Catacomb $14.99 584 75% 18k $263k (exactly $262,625) Dvora Studio Co., Ltd.
TRADESMAN: Deal to Dealer $4.99 1,528 78% 46k $229k (exactly $228,742) AZAMATIKA
Villages & Dungeons $6.99 1,036 91% 31k $217k (exactly $217,249) CaCaFrog Studio
Unmourned $24.99 258 79% 7.7k $193k (exactly $193,423) Codebros Studio
PIT OF GOBLIN · EA $5.99 915 84% 27k $164k (exactly $164,426) Friendly Foe

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.