Do I ship it?

GamesExplorationExploration + Interactive Fiction

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Exploration Interactive Fiction?

Exploration + Interactive Fiction

Of 644 developers who shipped an Exploration Interactive Fiction in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,244 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×3.4 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $250k, ×527 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 1,244 games are announced against 353 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.4 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 1,244 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Exploration + Interactive Fiction
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 644
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.5k → $2.7k → $2.4k → $2.9k → $2.5k → $2.0k → $1.8k (still earning) → $359 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Exploration + Interactive Fiction: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 644
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $1.6k (exactly $1,617)
Top 25% $11k (exactly $11,389)
Top 5% $250k (exactly $250,400)
Developers, 2 yr 644
Released games 1,738
Announced 1,244
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Interactive Fiction
effort 1 / 10 · high · prose plus a state machine

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Exploration, Interactive Fiction; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, RPG, Visual Novel
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Atmospheric, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 61,249 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.6k, 1 in 4 over $11k, 1 in 20 over $250k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 381 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,244 games are announced against 353 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Exploration with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair22 devs · median $8.1k · 26 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair31 devs · median $6.7k · 42 announced
  3. + SpaceshipsFair22 devs · median $3.5k · 28 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair122 devs · median $2.2k · 109 announced
  5. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 24 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds12 devs · median $192k · 35 announced
  7. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds23 devs · median $82k · 61 announced
  8. + Martial ArtsPoor odds25 devs · median $69k · 90 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds146 devs · median $58k · 354 announced
  10. + MMORPGPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced
  11. + FMVPoor odds45 devs · median $27k · 76 announced
  12. + FarmingPoor odds41 devs · median $24k · 58 announced

All 258 pairs on the Exploration page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
A Plague Tale: Requiem older $49.99 20,797 90% 624k $31M (exactly $31,189,261) Asobo Studio
Road 96 🛣️ older $19.96 22,118 91% 664k $13M (exactly $13,244,258) Digixart
The Invincible older $29.99 10,055 87% 302k $9.0M (exactly $9,046,484) Starward Industries
Gorogoa older $14.99 19,172 97% 575k $8.6M (exactly $8,621,648) Buried Signal
OPUS: Echo of Starsong - Full Bloom Edition older $24.99 8,722 96% 262k $6.5M (exactly $6,538,883) SIGONO INC.
Esoteric Ebb $24.99 8,719 95% 262k $6.5M (exactly $6,536,634) Christoffer Bodegård
Unheard - Voices of Crime older $6.99 30,978 95% 929k $6.5M (exactly $6,496,087) NEXT Studios
Until Dawn™ $59.99 3,564 82% 107k $6.4M (exactly $6,414,131) Ballistic Moon
Gone Home older $14.99 13,619 77% 409k $6.1M (exactly $6,124,464) Fullbright
Pentiment older $19.99 9,231 95% 277k $5.5M (exactly $5,535,831) Obsidian Entertainment
Star Trek: Voyager - Across the Unknown $34.99 4,162 79% 125k $4.4M (exactly $4,368,851) Gamexcite
Easy Delivery Co. $12.99 9,538 95% 286k $3.7M (exactly $3,716,959) Sam C
Homicipher $13.99 7,821 96% 235k $3.3M (exactly $3,282,474) 八名木Games
KARMA: The Dark World $24.99 3,963 90% 119k $3.0M (exactly $2,971,061) POLLARD STUDIO LLC
The Weeping Swan: Ten Days of the City's Fall $11.99 8,227 58% 247k $3.0M (exactly $2,959,252) 零创游戏(ZerocreationGame)
School Days $14.99 6,023 77% 181k $2.7M (exactly $2,708,543) 白雨工作室
Mandate Of Heaven $14.99 5,446 91% 163k $2.4M (exactly $2,449,066) 木焱工作室
The Rise of the Golden Idol $19.99 3,786 92% 114k $2.3M (exactly $2,270,464) Color Gray Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.