Do I ship it?

GamesExplorationExploration + Grid-Based Movement

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Exploration Grid-Based Movement game?

Exploration + Grid-Based Movement

Of 120 developers who shipped an Exploration Grid-Based Movement game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 198 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.9 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $55k, ×117 the market median. Revenue is up 65% on the market; 198 games are announced against 68 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 65% on the market, 198 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Exploration + Grid-Based Movement
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 120
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.3k → $8.0k → $4.2k → $1.2k → $748 → $809 → $1.5k (still earning) → $449 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Exploration + Grid-Based Movement: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 120
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $898 (exactly $898)
Top 25% $5.4k (exactly $5,396)
Top 5% $56k (exactly $55,772)
Developers, 2 yr 120
Released games 306
Announced 198
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 65% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Grid-Based Movement
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Exploration, Grid-Based Movement; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Dungeon Crawler, Turn-Based Combat
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Pixel Graphics, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 1,717 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $900, 1 in 4 over $5.3k, 1 in 20 over $55k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 9 in 10 of the 63 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 198 games are announced against 68 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Exploration with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair22 devs · median $8.1k · 26 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair31 devs · median $6.7k · 42 announced
  3. + SpaceshipsFair22 devs · median $3.5k · 28 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair122 devs · median $2.2k · 109 announced
  5. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 24 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds12 devs · median $192k · 35 announced
  7. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds23 devs · median $82k · 61 announced
  8. + Martial ArtsPoor odds25 devs · median $69k · 90 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds146 devs · median $58k · 354 announced
  10. + MMORPGPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced
  11. + FMVPoor odds45 devs · median $27k · 76 announced
  12. + FarmingPoor odds41 devs · median $24k · 58 announced

All 258 pairs on the Exploration page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Might & Magic X - Legacy older $29.99 3,178 65% 95k $2.9M (exactly $2,859,247) Ubisoft
Legend of Grimrock 2 older $23.99 3,065 90% 92k $2.2M (exactly $2,205,880) Almost Human Games
Vaporum older $19.99 998 84% 30k $599k (exactly $598,501) Fatbot Games, s. r. o.
Operencia: The Stolen Sun older $29.99 537 76% 16k $483k (exactly $483,139) Zen Studios
DUNGEON ENCOUNTERS older $29.99 494 70% 15k $444k (exactly $444,452) Square Enix
Subterrain: Mines of Titan older $19.99 657 75% 20k $394k (exactly $394,003) Pixellore Inc
The Fall of the Dungeon Guardians - Enhanced Edition older $19.99 625 83% 19k $375k (exactly $374,812) Mana Games
Avernum: Escape From the Pit older $9.99 1,191 91% 36k $357k (exactly $356,943) Spiderweb Software
Potato Flowers in Full Bloom older $17.99 654 95% 20k $353k (exactly $352,964) Pon Pon Games
Wizardry 8 older $9.99 1,080 89% 32k $324k (exactly $323,676) Sir-Tech Canada
Midnight Sin $19.99 387 82% 12k $232k (exactly $232,084) Faerin Games
THYSIASTERY $17.49 309 80% 9.3k $162k (exactly $162,132) DIRGA
文字遊戯(日本語版) $34.99 74 90% 2.2k $78k (exactly $77,678) Team9, ESQUADRA,inc.
Dragon Ruins II $9.99 209 87% 6.3k $63k (exactly $62,637) Graverobber Foundation
Icaria $24.99 79 75% 2.4k $59k (exactly $59,226) Blindsight Games LLC
GRIDbeat! $19.99 93 100% 2.8k $56k (exactly $55,772) Ridiculous Games
Into the Emberlands $6.59 253 79% 7.6k $50k (exactly $50,018) Tiny Roar
Cyclopean: The Great Abyss $9.99 163 89% 4.9k $49k (exactly $48,851) Schmidt Workshops
A Kobold Story : Trenchcoat Adventurer $19.99 72 95% 2.2k $43k (exactly $43,178) Crystal Spider Games
The Darkness Below $16.99 78 80% 2.3k $40k (exactly $39,757) ELEFTHERIADIS SAVVAS

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.