Games › Exploration › Exploration + Futuristic
Should I ship a Futuristic Exploration game?
Exploration + Futuristic
Of 398 developers who shipped a Futuristic Exploration game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 891 more are announced, ×4.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.4k, ×3.0 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $610k, ×1286 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 891 games are announced against 208 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $300 (exactly $300) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.4k (exactly $1,439) |
| Top 25% | $8.9k (exactly $8,900) |
| Top 5% | $611k (exactly $610,693) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 398 |
| Released games | 1,159 |
| Announced | 891 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Exploration
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Futuristic
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- Exploration; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, Action-Adventure
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, Story Rich
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 86% positive over 66,019 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 231 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 891 games are announced against 208 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Exploration with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + SpaceshipsFair
- + Escape RoomFair
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + WuxiaPoor odds
- + Extraction ShooterPoor odds
- + Martial ArtsPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + MMORPGPoor odds
- + FMVPoor odds
- + FarmingPoor odds
Comparable games
Cyberpunk 2077 2020 · $1.6B 
Stellaris 2016 · $210M 
Prey 2017 · $34M 
Mirror's Edge™ 2009 · $19M 
Sid Meier's Civilization®: Beyond Earth™ 2014 · $17M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Cyberpunk 2077 | older | $59.99 | 883,400 87% | 27M | $1.6B (exactly $1,589,854,980) | CD PROJEKT RED |
| | Stellaris | older | $49.99 | 139,718 85% | 4.2M | $210M (exactly $209,535,085) | Paradox Development Studio |
| | Prey | older | $29.99 | 37,759 90% | 1.1M | $34M (exactly $33,971,772) | Arkane Studios |
| | Mirror's Edge™ | older | $19.99 | 31,195 87% | 936k | $19M (exactly $18,707,642) | DICE |
| | Sid Meier's Civilization®: Beyond Earth™ | older | $39.99 | 14,047 61% | 421k | $17M (exactly $16,852,186) | Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux)) |
 | The Alters | $34.99 | 15,330 90% | 460k | $16M (exactly $16,091,901) | 11 bit studios | |
 | SpaceEngine | · EA older | $29.99 | 15,826 96% | 475k | $14M (exactly $14,238,652) | Cosmographic Software |
 | shapez 2 - Factory | $29.99 | 13,846 96% | 415k | $12M (exactly $12,457,246) | tobspr Games | |
 | The Invincible | older | $29.99 | 10,055 87% | 302k | $9.0M (exactly $9,046,484) | Starward Industries |
 | Cloudpunk | older | $19.99 | 13,788 87% | 414k | $8.3M (exactly $8,268,664) | ION LANDS |
 | Forever Skies | $29.99 | 8,138 78% | 244k | $7.3M (exactly $7,321,759) | Far From Home | |
 | The Killing Antidote | · EA | $29.99 | 7,512 88% | 225k | $6.8M (exactly $6,758,546) | MetalStar Studio |
 | Void Crew | $24.99 | 6,573 86% | 197k | $4.9M (exactly $4,927,778) | Hutlihut Games | |
 | Star Trek: Voyager - Across the Unknown | $34.99 | 4,162 79% | 125k | $4.4M (exactly $4,368,851) | Gamexcite | |
 | Daemon X Machina: Titanic Scion | $69.99 | 1,838 63% | 55k | $3.9M (exactly $3,859,249) | Marvelous Inc. | |
 | Metro Awakening | $29.99 | 3,013 73% | 90k | $2.7M (exactly $2,710,796) | Vertigo Games | |
 | MIO: Memories in Orbit | $19.99 | 4,300 83% | 129k | $2.6M (exactly $2,578,710) | Douze Dixièmes | |
 | Lost Soul Aside™ | $59.99 | 1,307 59% | 39k | $2.4M (exactly $2,352,208) | Ultizero Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.