Do I ship it?

GamesTactical RPGTactical RPG + Dystopian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dystopian Tactical RPG?

Tactical RPG + Dystopian

Only 18 developers shipped a Dystopian Tactical RPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Scavland, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 52 more are announced, ×4.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.3k, ×10 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $470k, ×764 the market median. Revenue is up 1795% on the market; 52 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 10.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 1795% on the market, 52 announced, ×4.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tactical RPG + Dystopian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 18
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $275k → $177k → $1.2k → $8.0k → $67k (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tactical RPG + Dystopian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 18
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Median $6.3k (exactly $6,296)
Top 25% $105k (exactly $105,392)
Top 5% $480k (exactly $479,760)
Developers, 2 yr 18
Released games 50
Announced 52
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1795% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tactical RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Dystopian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Tactical RPG; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Action, Turn-Based Tactics
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Isometric, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 3,094 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $6.3k, 1 in 4 over $100k, 1 in 20 over $470k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 9 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 52 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tactical RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair24 devs · median $9.0k · 29 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonFair30 devs · median $2.4k · 24 announced
  3. + Space SimFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 15 announced
  4. + Point & ClickFair21 devs · median $839 · 26 announced
  5. + 2D PlatformerFair58 devs · median $599 · 49 announced
  6. + Asynchronous MultiplayerPoor odds10 devs · median $63k · 16 announced
  7. + Colony SimPoor odds16 devs · median $41k · 29 announced
  8. + SandboxPoor odds42 devs · median $20k · 102 announced
  9. + Turn-BasedPoor odds61 devs · median $18k · 81 announced
  10. + RobotsPoor odds15 devs · median $17k · 27 announced
  11. + RomancePoor odds23 devs · median $10k · 38 announced
  12. + WarPoor odds80 devs · median $8.7k · 143 announced

All 145 pairs on the Tactical RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Colony Ship: A Post-Earth Role Playing Game older $39.99 4,087 87% 123k $4.9M (exactly $4,903,174) Iron Tower Studio
Miasma Chronicles older $34.99 2,013 79% 60k $2.1M (exactly $2,113,046) The Bearded Ladies
Showgunners older $29.99 1,642 93% 49k $1.5M (exactly $1,477,307) Artificer
Capes older $39.99 446 67% 13k $535k (exactly $535,066) Spitfire Interactive
METAL MAX Xeno Reborn older $39.99 444 65% 13k $533k (exactly $532,667) 24Frame,inc.
Scavland · EA $19.99 800 81% 24k $480k (exactly $479,760) NoShadow
Sunday Gold older $21.99 687 77% 21k $453k (exactly $453,214) BKOM Studios
For the People older $16.99 729 73% 22k $372k (exactly $371,571) Brezg Studio
Deadeye Deepfake Simulacrum $12.99 839 98% 25k $327k (exactly $326,958) nodayshalleraseyou
Vultures - Scavengers of Death $17.99 532 81% 16k $287k (exactly $287,120) Team Vultures
Deified · EA $14.99 281 96% 8.4k $126k (exactly $126,366) Unexpected
Entropy · EA $11.99 293 94% 8.8k $105k (exactly $105,392) Lovely Hellplace
Vampire Syndicate: Gangs of MoonFall · EA $19.99 111 71% 3.3k $67k (exactly $66,567) A Memory of Eternity
Slay or Fall $6.99 147 89% 4.4k $31k (exactly $30,826) ostsergey
City of Springs $6.99 38 86% 1.1k $8.0k (exactly $7,969) The Naked Dev, Alterego Games
Fractured Core $14.99 14 78% 420 $6.3k (exactly $6,296) Engram Interactive
Day Zero · EA $4.99 39 79% 1.2k $5.8k (exactly $5,838) Imdie Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.