Do I ship it?

GamesReal Time TacticsReal Time Tactics + Dystopian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dystopian Real Time Tactics?

Real Time Tactics + Dystopian

Only 15 developers shipped a Dystopian Real Time Tactics in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, PROHIBEAST, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 44 more are announced, ×4.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450 in the last 2 years and $480 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 9 developers shipped in the last year and 44 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 70% on the market, 44 announced, ×4.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Real Time Tactics + Dystopian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $179 → $1.2k → $0 → $210 (still earning) → $899 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Real Time Tactics + Dystopian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $450 (exactly $450)
Top 25% $1.8k (exactly $1,799)
Top 5% $127k (exactly $127,014)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 45
Announced 44
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 70% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Real Time Tactics
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Dystopian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Real Time Tactics; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, RTS, Simulation
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $34.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Top-Down, 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 9 games average 82% positive over 320 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $450, 1 in 4 over $1.7k, 1 in 20 over $120k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. All of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 44 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Real Time Tactics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + DragonsStrong odds17 devs · median $6.6k · 19 announced
  2. + Outbreak SimFair12 devs · median $1.8k · 14 announced
  3. + HackingFair11 devs · median $987 · 11 announced
  4. + World War IIPoor odds24 devs · median $67k · 35 announced
  5. + Cold WarPoor odds9 devs · median $19k · 16 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds88 devs · median $19k · 154 announced
  7. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds19 devs · median $16k · 31 announced
  8. + Real-TimePoor odds16 devs · median $16k · 26 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds16 devs · median $13k · 32 announced
  10. + Vehicular CombatPoor odds20 devs · median $9.6k · 50 announced
  11. + God GamePoor odds19 devs · median $7.8k · 32 announced
  12. + Open WorldPoor odds29 devs · median $7.2k · 111 announced

All 176 pairs on the Real Time Tactics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Terminator: Dark Fate - Defiance older $39.99 3,395 82% 102k $4.1M (exactly $4,072,982) Slitherine Ltd.
Showgunners older $29.99 1,642 93% 49k $1.5M (exactly $1,477,307) Artificer
Cavalry Girls older $11.99 1,877 88% 56k $675k (exactly $675,157) 中子星游戏研究所
Nuclear Dawn older $9.99 1,619 78% 49k $485k (exactly $485,214) GameConnect, InterWave Studios
Bot Wars · EA older $14.99 700 86% 21k $315k (exactly $314,790) Frompy Games
No Creeps Were Harmed TD older $19.99 468 88% 14k $281k (exactly $280,660) MinMax Games Ltd.
PROHIBEAST $34.99 121 57% 3.6k $127k (exactly $127,014) SUPER AC
XO · EA older $19.99 82 87% 2.5k $49k (exactly $49,175) Jumpdrive Studios
Red Rocket Defencism $7.99 172 98% 5.2k $41k (exactly $41,228) tiny cactus studio
City Eye older $9.99 73 32% 2.2k $22k (exactly $21,878) ·
NULLPTR $14.99 12 100% 360 $5.4k (exactly $5,396) Jeferson Silva
Supreme Ruler Global Outbreak $19.99 3 66% 90 $1.8k (exactly $1,799) BattleGoat Studios
Voyna $12.99 3 100% 90 $1.2k (exactly $1,169) HellYeah!
Frogrammer $9.99 3 100% 90 $899 (exactly $899) Snobfox
S.S.C. Rusted $3.99 4 100% 120 $479 (exactly $479) Series Sun
OKTOFYBER $14.99 1 100% 30 $450 (exactly $450) iaroslav motailov
Overwork Empire $6.99 1 0% 30 $210 (exactly $210) YanBei
3096 $3.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Hector Hedgecoat Industries

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.