Do I ship it?

GamesMystery DungeonMystery Dungeon + Dystopian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dystopian Mystery Dungeon?

Mystery Dungeon + Dystopian

Only 9 developers shipped a Dystopian Mystery Dungeon in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Midnight Murder Maze, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 9 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, ×1.3 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50; 1 in 20 cleared $2.5k, ×5.3 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 9 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 9 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Mystery Dungeon + Dystopian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 9

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Mystery Dungeon + Dystopian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 9
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $598 (exactly $598)
Top 25% $1.4k (exactly $1,436)
Top 5% $2.5k (exactly $2,516)
Developers, 2 yr 9
Released games 25
Announced 9
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $3.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 28%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Mystery Dungeon
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Dystopian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Mystery Dungeon
Price point
$3.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $6.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 73% positive over 185 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $600, 1 in 4 over $1.4k, 1 in 20 over $2.5k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. All of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 9 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Mystery Dungeon with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGStrong odds43 devs · median $21k · 23 announced
  2. + TacticalStrong odds20 devs · median $2.5k · 15 announced
  3. + Auto BattlerFair17 devs · median $13k · 16 announced
  4. + RomanceFair12 devs · median $5.8k · 10 announced
  5. + Perma DeathFair27 devs · median $2.7k · 29 announced
  6. + Tactical RPGFair30 devs · median $2.4k · 24 announced
  7. + Walking SimulatorFair34 devs · median $1.6k · 35 announced
  8. + SimulationFair57 devs · median $1.3k · 67 announced
  9. + Bullet HellFair14 devs · median $1.0k · 18 announced
  10. + Time ManagementFair11 devs · median $898 · 8 announced
  11. + HistoricalFair7 devs · median $719 · 10 announced
  12. + PhysicsFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced

All 116 pairs on the Mystery Dungeon page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DreamBreak older $6.99 48 56% 1.4k $10k (exactly $10,066) Fortell Games
JongRo 3_Street older $6.99 31 58% 930 $6.5k (exactly $6,501) BlueKim
Magirune 2 older $4.99 36 100% 1.1k $5.4k (exactly $5,389) Fluffy Lotus
Midnight Murder Maze $6.99 12 100% 360 $2.5k (exactly $2,516) Rum Shack Studios LLC
The Backrooms: Forsaken $5.99 14 71% 420 $2.5k (exactly $2,516) Fred Grant Studios
The Cesspit older $4.99 11 54% 330 $1.6k (exactly $1,647) BlueTale
FEEDERS · EA $3.99 12 66% 360 $1.4k (exactly $1,436) Luvi Technologies
Legend of the Moon older $2.99 12 100% 360 $1.1k (exactly $1,076) GozipGame
The Complex Tragedy older $2.99 7 71% 210 $628 (exactly $628) Kubilay Dekin
Odessa $9.99 2 100% 60 $599 (exactly $599) Aldorlea Games
OKIRO $3.99 5 100% 150 $598 (exactly $598) Ziya Gao, Songya Xu, Zhenxi Zhang, Tina… (Ziya Gao, Songya Xu, Zhenxi Zhang, Tina Yao)
Dustline $1.99 2 0% 60 $119 (exactly $119) Dustline Studio
United Heist: Facility Zero $6.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) No more Sleep
Cursed station $1.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Bloqiya M.R.W
CONCRETE BURIAL $3.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Games From The Abyss

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.