Do I ship it?

GamesOffroadOffroad + Driving

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Driving Offroad game?

Offroad + Driving

Of 73 developers who shipped a Driving Offroad game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 118 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×0.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300. 118 games are announced against 38 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper, while revenue is up 460% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 460% on the market, 118 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Offroad + Driving
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 73
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.0k → $539 → $1.9k → $896 → $898 → $2.5k → $674 (still earning) → $69k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Offroad + Driving: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 73
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $898 (exactly $898)
Top 25% $22k (exactly $21,856)
Top 5% $1.3M (exactly $1,266,355)
Developers, 2 yr 73
Released games 230
Announced 118
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 460% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Offroad
effort 7 / 10 · low · terrain and suspension physics
Driving
effort 6 / 10 · low · vehicle handling feel is tuned by hand

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Offroad, Driving; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Automobile Sim, Physics, Simulation
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic, Third Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 90,243 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $900, 1 in 4 over $21k, 1 in 20 over $1.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 40 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 118 games are announced against 38 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Offroad with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + 3D PlatformerLong shot14 devs · median $478 · 12 announced
  2. + Character CustomizationPoor odds11 devs · median $69k · 27 announced
  3. + Immersive SimPoor odds14 devs · median $19k · 32 announced
  4. + PvPPoor odds13 devs · median $4.3k · 19 announced
  5. + PhysicsPoor odds50 devs · median $2.7k · 71 announced
  6. + ExplorationPoor odds42 devs · median $2.7k · 70 announced
  7. + SportsPoor odds25 devs · median $2.5k · 28 announced
  8. + TransportationPoor odds10 devs · median $2.3k · 26 announced
  9. + Automobile SimPoor odds50 devs · median $1.7k · 74 announced
  10. + SimulationPoor odds57 devs · median $1.3k · 83 announced
  11. + Open WorldPoor odds22 devs · median $1.3k · 50 announced
  12. + NaturePoor odds20 devs · median $1.1k · 34 announced

All 28 pairs on the Offroad page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DiRT Rally 2.0 older $19.99 39,091 89% 1.2M $23M (exactly $23,442,873) Codemasters
MudRunner older $19.99 37,705 91% 1.1M $23M (exactly $22,611,688) Saber Interactive
RV There Yet? $7.99 72,732 90% 2.2M $17M (exactly $17,433,860) Nuggets Entertainment
EA SPORTS™ WRC older $49.99 10,532 61% 316k $16M (exactly $15,794,840) Codemasters
WRC 7 FIA World Rally Championship older $19.99 12,146 82% 364k $7.3M (exactly $7,283,956) KT Racing
DIRT 5 older $59.99 3,530 59% 106k $6.4M (exactly $6,352,941) Codemasters
JDM: Japanese Drift Master $34.99 5,217 75% 157k $5.5M (exactly $5,476,285) Gaming Factory
MX vs ATV Legends older $39.99 4,524 82% 136k $5.4M (exactly $5,427,443) Rainbow Studios
art of rally older $24.99 5,580 92% 167k $4.2M (exactly $4,183,326) Funselektor Labs Inc.
WRC Generations – The FIA WRC Official Game older $39.99 3,345 67% 100k $4.0M (exactly $4,012,996) KT Racing
Sledders $29.99 4,372 95% 131k $3.9M (exactly $3,933,488) Hanki Games
FUMES · EA $14.99 2,816 95% 84k $1.3M (exactly $1,266,355) FUMES team
Old School Rally $12.99 2,142 89% 64k $835k (exactly $834,737) Frozen Lake Games
Pure Rock Crawling $14.99 1,291 83% 39k $581k (exactly $580,563) Maciej Kuzianik
#DRIVE Rally $19.99 743 79% 22k $446k (exactly $445,577) Pixel Perfect Dude
World of Outlaws: Dirt Racing 24 Gold Edition $39.99 243 89% 7.3k $292k (exactly $291,527) Monster Games, Amber
Exo Rally Championship $24.99 374 90% 11k $280k (exactly $280,388) Exbleative
Recharge: Room Games · EA $19.99 313 67% 9.4k $188k (exactly $187,706) Room Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.