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Should I ship a Dragon Sandbox?
Sandbox + Dragons
Of 25 developers who shipped a Dragon Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 47 more are announced, ×4.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $4.6k, ×7.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $840; 1 in 20 cleared $1.2M, ×2062 the market median. Revenue is up 2845% on the market; 47 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $838 (exactly $838) |
|---|---|
| Median | $4.6k (exactly $4,585) |
| Top 25% | $58k (exactly $57,571) |
| Top 5% | $1.3M (exactly $1,295,136) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 25 |
| Released games | 70 |
| Announced | 47 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 2845% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Sandbox; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Simulation, Open World
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Third Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 82% positive over 33,028 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $840. 9 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 47 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Sandbox with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FightingStrong odds
- + Turn-BasedFair
- + World War IIFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + ProgrammingFair
- + CatsFair
- + SportsFair
- + GamblingFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Trading Card GameFair
- + IdlerFair
Comparable games
ARK: Survival Evolved 2017 · $264M 
RuneScape: Dragonwilds 2026 · $25M 
Dark and Light 2017 · EA · $5.7M 
Day of Dragons 2019 · EA · $3.8M 
Storyteller 2023 · $3.7M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | ARK: Survival Evolved | older | $14.99 | 586,768 83% | 18M | $264M (exactly $263,869,570) | Studio Wildcard, Instinct Games, Efecto… (Studio Wildcard, Instinct Games, Efecto Studios, Virtual Basement LLC) |
| | RuneScape: Dragonwilds | $29.99 | 28,071 81% | 842k | $25M (exactly $25,255,479) | Jagex Ltd | |
| | Dark and Light | · EA older | $17.99 | 10,577 51% | 317k | $5.7M (exactly $5,708,407) | Snail Games USA |
| | Day of Dragons | · EA older | $19.99 | 6,278 68% | 188k | $3.8M (exactly $3,764,917) | Beawesome Games |
| | Storyteller | older | $14.99 | 8,169 88% | 245k | $3.7M (exactly $3,673,599) | Daniel Benmergui |
 | Citadel: Forged with Fire | older | $14.99 | 5,004 67% | 150k | $2.3M (exactly $2,250,299) | Blue Isle Studios |
 | CastleMiner Z | older | $5.99 | 7,939 83% | 238k | $1.4M (exactly $1,426,638) | DigitalDNA Games |
 | Drag'n Wash | $14.99 | 2,880 96% | 86k | $1.3M (exactly $1,295,136) | Gator Dragon Games | |
 | Fallen Enchantress: Legendary Heroes | older | $24.99 | 1,655 78% | 50k | $1.2M (exactly $1,240,754) | Stardock Entertainment |
 | Aground | older | $14.99 | 1,823 94% | 55k | $820k (exactly $819,803) | Fancy Fish Games, SnöBox Studio |
 | Anthro Heat | $29.99 | 629 92% | 19k | $566k (exactly $565,911) | Blue Lizard Studios | |
 | Huaxia: Warring States | · EA | $19.99 | 701 61% | 21k | $420k (exactly $420,390) | 秦川汉渚 |
 | Embers Adrift | $19.99 | 240 69% | 7.2k | $144k (exactly $143,928) | Stormhaven Studios | |
 | Excidio The Kaiju Simulator | $12.99 | 244 92% | 7.3k | $95k (exactly $95,087) | TokuPop | |
 | Spirit Animal Survival | $19.99 | 96 62% | 2.9k | $58k (exactly $57,571) | TRUEFX GAMES | |
 | AFKandia - Epoch of Idle | $5.99 | 66 45% | 2.0k | $12k (exactly $11,860) | Yang++ Game Studio | |
 | Animal Simulator | $8.99 | 39 30% | 1.2k | $11k (exactly $10,518) | Imperian Online - Core | |
 | Bathhouse Creatures | $4.99 | 62 98% | 1.9k | $9.3k (exactly $9,281) | Sleepy Rocket |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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