Do I ship it?

Games › Physics › Physics + Dragons

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dragon Physics game?

Physics + Dragons

Only 9 developers shipped a Dragon Physics game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Anthro Heat, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 24 more are announced, ×4.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.6k, ×5.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $560k, ×901 the market median. Revenue is up 425% on the market; 24 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 425% on the market, 24 announced, ×4.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Physics + Dragons
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 9

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Physics + Dragons: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 9
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Median $3.6k (exactly $3,565)
Top 25% $95k (exactly $95,087)
Top 5% $566k (exactly $565,911)
Developers, 2 yr 9
Released games 31
Announced 24
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 425% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
Dragons
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Physics
Price point
$6.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 63% positive over 79,400 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $3.6k, 1 in 4 over $95k, 1 in 20 over $560k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 24 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Physics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds31 devs · median $8.1k · 30 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair28 devs · median $5.9k · 20 announced
  3. + PinballFair62 devs · median $2.5k · 80 announced
  4. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  5. + Mini GolfFair40 devs · median $1.2k · 44 announced
  6. + GolfFair55 devs · median $987 · 59 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair179 devs · median $718 · 230 announced
  8. + IdlerFair142 devs · median $718 · 167 announced
  9. + Hidden ObjectFair162 devs · median $600 · 157 announced
  10. + CatsFair76 devs · median $599 · 101 announced
  11. + Mystery DungeonFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced
  12. + BilliardsFair36 devs · median $538 · 32 announced

All 251 pairs on the Physics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Dragon's Dogma 2 2024 · $92M Anthro Heat 2025 · $566k The RPG 2025 · $346k Golf Around! 2020 · $247k Excidio The Kaiju Simulator 2026 · $95k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dragon's Dogma 2 older $39.99 76,627 62% 2.3M $92M (exactly $91,929,412) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Anthro Heat $29.99 629 92% 19k $566k (exactly $565,911) Blue Lizard Studios
The RPG $14.99 769 86% 23k $346k (exactly $345,819) Dionysus Acroreites
Golf Around! older $9.99 823 94% 25k $247k (exactly $246,653) Hough Studio
Excidio The Kaiju Simulator $12.99 244 92% 7.3k $95k (exactly $95,087) TokuPop
Scrap Garden older $9.99 206 72% 6.2k $62k (exactly $61,738) Egidijus Bachur, Alexey Davydov
Knock on Fate：The Guardian Pusher $5.99 58 87% 1.7k $10k (exactly $10,423) 刚正面的红领巾
Spire Blast $6.99 17 100% 510 $3.6k (exactly $3,565) Orbital Knight
Guntech 2 older $14.99 6 100% 180 $2.7k (exactly $2,698) Jani Penttinen
Animal Shake · EA older $3.99 21 100% 630 $2.5k (exactly $2,514) G.H Theory
Way of the Dragons · EA $4.99 13 100% 390 $1.9k (exactly $1,946) Said Yavuz
Disc Dungeon $9.99 4 100% 120 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) Fire Titan Games
Gladiator $2.99 8 0% 240 $718 (exactly $718) coreloop
Whooshy Dragon $1.79 1 100% 30 $54 (exactly $54) Nicolas Porion

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.