Should I ship a Dog RPG?
RPG + Dogs
Of 32 developers who shipped a Dog RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 59 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $630, level with the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $200; 1 in 20 cleared $160k, ×257 the market median. Revenue is up 90% on the market; 59 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $200 (exactly $200) |
|---|---|
| Median | $629 (exactly $629) |
| Top 25% | $10k (exactly $10,067) |
| Top 5% | $161k (exactly $161,442) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 32 |
| Released games | 122 |
| Announced | 59 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 90% on the market, supply 85% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- RPG; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, Action-Adventure
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Cute, Story Rich, 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $16.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 62% positive over 5,134 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $200. 9 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 59 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + IdlerFair
- + Boss RushFair
- + SportsFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Split ScreenFair
- + Precision PlatformerFair
- + SamuraiPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + 4XPoor odds
- + MinigamesPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
Comparable games
Watch_Dogs™ 2014 · $30M 
Beast of Reincarnation 2026 · $7.5M 
Okami HD 2017 · $4.9M 
Carnal Instinct 2021 · EA · $4.9M 
Cat Quest II 2019 · $2.6M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Watch_Dogs™ | older | $19.99 | 49,193 79% | 1.5M | $30M (exactly $29,501,042) | Ubisoft |
| | Beast of Reincarnation | $59.99 | 4,188 56% | 126k | $7.5M (exactly $7,537,144) | GAME FREAK inc. | |
| | Okami HD | older | $19.99 | 8,226 92% | 247k | $4.9M (exactly $4,933,132) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. |
| | Carnal Instinct | · EA older | $29.99 | 5,407 82% | 162k | $4.9M (exactly $4,864,678) | Team Carnal Instinct |
| | Cat Quest II | older | $14.99 | 5,850 95% | 176k | $2.6M (exactly $2,630,745) | The Gentlebros |
 | No Place Like Home | older | $19.99 | 3,784 78% | 114k | $2.3M (exactly $2,269,265) | Chicken Launcher |
 | STORY OF SEASONS: Pioneers of Olive Town | older | $39.99 | 1,357 82% | 41k | $1.6M (exactly $1,627,993) | Marvelous Inc. |
 | STORY OF SEASONS: A Wonderful Life | older | $39.99 | 1,199 78% | 36k | $1.4M (exactly $1,438,440) | Marvelous Inc. |
 | Fuga: Melodies of Steel | older | $39.99 | 1,181 93% | 35k | $1.4M (exactly $1,416,846) | CyberConnect2 |
 | Calico | older | $11.99 | 3,238 88% | 97k | $1.2M (exactly $1,164,709) | Peachy Keen Games |
 | Milfylicious - Chapter I | $14.99 | 359 81% | 11k | $161k (exactly $161,442) | Maximus | |
 | Sheepherds! | $14.99 | 307 98% | 9.2k | $138k (exactly $138,058) | Ultimo Disco | |
 | Signy & Mino: Against All Gods | $16.99 | 52 88% | 1.6k | $27k (exactly $26,504) | AN Productions | |
 | Bangkok Story: A Stray Dog | $9.99 | 59 100% | 1.8k | $18k (exactly $17,682) | Shameful Guys Development | |
 | Roguematch : The Extraplanar Invasion | $14.99 | 33 84% | 990 | $15k (exactly $14,840) | Starstruck Games | |
 | Unusual Tales: After Bark | $6.99 | 65 89% | 2.0k | $14k (exactly $13,630) | Jall | |
 | Woolly Boy and the Circus | $7.99 | 42 64% | 1.3k | $10k (exactly $10,067) | big pineapple | |
 | Donna: The Canine Quest | $9.99 | 15 100% | 450 | $4.5k (exactly $4,496) | RAZE GAMES | |
 | Virago World | $9.99 | 14 71% | 420 | $4.2k (exactly $4,196) | Honest Chronicle |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.