Games › Sandbox › Sandbox + Dinosaurs
Should I ship a Dinosaur Sandbox?
Sandbox + Dinosaurs
Only 19 developers shipped a Dinosaur Sandbox in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Jurassic World Evolution 3, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 40 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $8.5k, ×14 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.7k; 1 in 20 cleared $20M, ×32632 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 40 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $2.6k (exactly $2,637) |
|---|---|
| Median | $8.5k (exactly $8,544) |
| Top 25% | $76k (exactly $75,745) |
| Top 5% | $20M (exactly $20,493,184) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 19 |
| Released games | 62 |
| Announced | 40 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $11.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 115% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Sandbox; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Combat, Physics
- Price point
- $11.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, Colorful
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.
The top 10 games average 91% positive over 13,096 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $2.7k. 9 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 40 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Sandbox with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FightingStrong odds
- + Turn-BasedFair
- + World War IIFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + ProgrammingFair
- + CatsFair
- + SportsFair
- + GamblingFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Trading Card GameFair
- + IdlerFair
Comparable games
ARK: Survival Evolved 2017 · $264M 
ARK: Survival Ascended 2023 · EA · $144M 
Jurassic World Evolution 2 2021 · $71M 
The Isle 2015 · EA · $67M 
Jurassic World Evolution 2018 · $65M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | ARK: Survival Evolved | older | $14.99 | 586,768 83% | 18M | $264M (exactly $263,869,570) | Studio Wildcard, Instinct Games, Efecto… (Studio Wildcard, Instinct Games, Efecto Studios, Virtual Basement LLC) |
| | ARK: Survival Ascended | · EA older | $44.99 | 106,761 60% | 3.2M | $144M (exactly $144,095,322) | Studio Wildcard, Grove Street Games, In… (Studio Wildcard, Grove Street Games, Instinct Games) |
| | Jurassic World Evolution 2 | older | $59.99 | 39,644 90% | 1.2M | $71M (exactly $71,347,307) | Frontier Developments |
| | The Isle | · EA older | $19.99 | 111,397 80% | 3.3M | $67M (exactly $66,804,781) | Afterthought LLC |
| | Jurassic World Evolution | older | $44.99 | 48,311 87% | 1.4M | $65M (exactly $65,205,357) | Frontier Developments |
 | Jurassic World Evolution 3 | $59.99 | 11,387 93% | 342k | $20M (exactly $20,493,184) | Frontier Developments | |
 | PixARK | older | $19.99 | 11,142 73% | 334k | $6.7M (exactly $6,681,857) | Snail Games USA |
 | Prehistoric Kingdom | · EA older | $29.99 | 5,640 90% | 169k | $5.1M (exactly $5,074,308) | Blue Meridian |
 | Beasts of Bermuda | · EA older | $19.99 | 8,430 69% | 253k | $5.1M (exactly $5,055,471) | Sastrei Studios, LLC |
 | Animal Revolt Battle Simulator | older | $14.99 | 6,571 95% | 197k | $3.0M (exactly $2,954,979) | VDimension |
 | FEROCIOUS | $24.99 | 742 63% | 22k | $556k (exactly $556,277) | OMYOG | |
 | Excidio The Kaiju Simulator | $12.99 | 244 92% | 7.3k | $95k (exactly $95,087) | TokuPop | |
 | Toy Tactics | $24.99 | 121 91% | 3.6k | $91k (exactly $90,714) | Kraken Empire | |
 | King of Bones | $7.99 | 316 85% | 9.5k | $76k (exactly $75,745) | Gluten Free Games | |
 | Spirit Animal Survival | $19.99 | 96 62% | 2.9k | $58k (exactly $57,571) | TRUEFX GAMES | |
 | DragonRoad | $19.98 | 82 91% | 2.5k | $49k (exactly $49,151) | XuJie | |
 | Primeval | $14.99 | 75 60% | 2.3k | $34k (exactly $33,728) | Exhibyte | |
 | PAW Patrol™: Dino World | $39.99 | 14 64% | 420 | $17k (exactly $16,796) | 3DClouds | |
 | Dinosaur | $14.99 | 19 73% | 570 | $8.5k (exactly $8,544) | Dinosaur Master |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.