Do I ship it?

GamesPhysicsPhysics + Dinosaurs

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dinosaur Physics game?

Physics + Dinosaurs

Only 8 developers shipped a Dinosaur Physics game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Deathground, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 18 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $76k, ×121 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.8k; 1 in 20 cleared $390k, ×628 the market median. Momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games; 18 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 120.6 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 18 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Physics + Dinosaurs
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 8

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Physics + Dinosaurs: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 8
Bottom 30% $1.8k (exactly $1,799)
Median $76k (exactly $75,745)
Top 25% $95k (exactly $95,087)
Top 5% $394k (exactly $394,387)
Developers, 2 yr 8
Released games 32
Announced 18
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 600% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 22%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
Dinosaurs
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Physics
Price point
$12.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 10,364 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.8k, median $76k, 1 in 4 over $95k, 1 in 20 over $390k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.8k. 18 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Physics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds31 devs · median $8.1k · 30 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair28 devs · median $5.9k · 20 announced
  3. + PinballFair62 devs · median $2.5k · 80 announced
  4. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  5. + Mini GolfFair40 devs · median $1.2k · 44 announced
  6. + GolfFair55 devs · median $987 · 59 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair179 devs · median $718 · 230 announced
  8. + IdlerFair142 devs · median $718 · 167 announced
  9. + Hidden ObjectFair162 devs · median $600 · 157 announced
  10. + CatsFair76 devs · median $599 · 101 announced
  11. + Mystery DungeonFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced
  12. + BilliardsFair36 devs · median $538 · 32 announced

All 251 pairs on the Physics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Animal Revolt Battle Simulator older $14.99 6,571 95% 197k $3.0M (exactly $2,954,979) VDimension
Deathground · EA $14.99 877 61% 26k $394k (exactly $394,387) Jaw Drop Games
Beast Battle Simulator older $9.99 1,234 88% 37k $370k (exactly $369,830) DOG HOGGLER
Terror of Hemasaurus older $14.99 766 91% 23k $344k (exactly $344,470) Loren Lemcke
Excidio The Kaiju Simulator $12.99 244 92% 7.3k $95k (exactly $95,087) TokuPop
Toy Tactics $24.99 121 91% 3.6k $91k (exactly $90,714) Kraken Empire
King of Bones $7.99 316 85% 9.5k $76k (exactly $75,745) Gluten Free Games
Mutant Alley older $9.99 80 73% 2.4k $24k (exactly $23,976) TailsUp4Tyranno
There Was A Caveman older $6.99 108 72% 3.2k $23k (exactly $22,648) Nauris Amatnieks
Fossil Hunters older $14.99 47 74% 1.4k $21k (exactly $21,136) Reptoid Games
Fire Boy $6.99 11 81% 330 $2.3k (exactly $2,307) Caraca Games
Extinct Forest · EA $14.99 4 75% 120 $1.8k (exactly $1,799) Systemfehler Entertainment TS
Dino Jump Deluxe $4.99 10 100% 300 $1.5k (exactly $1,497) Pixeljam
Wrecking Wave $4.99 3 100% 90 $449 (exactly $449) BrunuuDev

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.