Do I ship it?

Games › Physics › Physics + Detective

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Detective Physics game?

Physics + Detective

Of 27 developers who shipped a Detective Physics game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 38 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.1k, ×1.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $44k, ×72 the market median. Revenue is up 35% on the market; 38 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 35% on the market, 38 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Physics + Detective
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 27
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.8k → $150 → $1.2k → $1.2k → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Physics + Detective: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 27
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $1.1k (exactly $1,076)
Top 25% $2.7k (exactly $2,697)
Top 5% $45k (exactly $44,962)
Developers, 2 yr 27
Released games 56
Announced 38
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 35% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
Detective
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Physics; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Investigation, Adventure
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, First-Person, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 547 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $1.1k, 1 in 4 over $2.6k, 1 in 20 over $44k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 38 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Physics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds31 devs · median $8.1k · 30 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair28 devs · median $5.9k · 20 announced
  3. + PinballFair62 devs · median $2.5k · 80 announced
  4. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  5. + Mini GolfFair40 devs · median $1.2k · 44 announced
  6. + GolfFair55 devs · median $987 · 59 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair179 devs · median $718 · 230 announced
  8. + IdlerFair142 devs · median $718 · 167 announced
  9. + Hidden ObjectFair162 devs · median $600 · 157 announced
  10. + CatsFair76 devs · median $599 · 101 announced
  11. + Mystery DungeonFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced
  12. + BilliardsFair36 devs · median $538 · 32 announced

All 251 pairs on the Physics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Contraband Police 2023 · $22M Airport X-Ray Simulator 2024 · EA · $99k Dr Livingstone, I Presume? Reversed Escape Room 2021 · $52k Police Officer 2026 · $45k Tache Noire 2026 · $25k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Contraband Police older $29.99 24,882 95% 746k $22M (exactly $22,386,335) Crazy Rocks
Airport X-Ray Simulator · EA $12.99 253 80% 7.6k $99k (exactly $98,594) Rainbow Lab
Dr Livingstone, I Presume? Reversed Escape Room older $14.99 115 73% 3.5k $52k (exactly $51,716) Vulpesoft
Police Officer $11.99 125 65% 3.8k $45k (exactly $44,962) Turquoise Games
Tache Noire $16.99 50 94% 1.5k $25k (exactly $25,485) StitchedCliffs
Paranormal Detective: Escape from the 80's older $9.99 82 92% 2.5k $25k (exactly $24,575) LunaBeat
Paranormal Detective: Escape from the 90's older $11.99 53 79% 1.6k $19k (exactly $19,064) LunaBeat
Gluua older $9.99 50 38% 1.5k $15k (exactly $14,985) Knarl Studio
DarkHouse older $9.99 42 64% 1.3k $13k (exactly $12,587) VD Games
Detective Penguin $6.99 54 87% 1.6k $11k (exactly $11,324) That Other Fish, That Fish
Project 7: Escape Room $6.99 19 47% 570 $4.0k (exactly $3,984) M9 Games
Amber Alert TOTAL VR $5.99 19 47% 570 $3.4k (exactly $3,414) MEATBREAD, VirtualVillain
CyberCook $8.99 10 90% 300 $2.7k (exactly $2,697) Vesvese Studios
Phantom Asylum VR · EA $9.99 8 75% 240 $2.4k (exactly $2,398) SRVR
CINESCAPE VR $14.99 5 60% 150 $2.2k (exactly $2,248) SUPER AC
Oldest Golden Treasure $14.99 4 75% 120 $1.8k (exactly $1,799) Vasil4N

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.