Should I ship a Detective FMV?
FMV + Detective
Of 20 developers who shipped a Detective FMV in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 33 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $31k, ×66 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $9.6k; 1 in 20 cleared $410k, ×869 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 33 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $9.5k (exactly $9,524) |
|---|---|
| Median | $31k (exactly $31,468) |
| Top 25% | $142k (exactly $141,592) |
| Top 5% | $413k (exactly $412,987) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 20 |
| Released games | 97 |
| Announced | 33 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 1%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- FMV; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Immersive Sim, RPG, Adventure
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
- Art
- 7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Cinematic, Emotional
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 87% positive over 7,819 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $9.6k. 2 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 33 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
FMV with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + SurvivalStrong odds
- + Post-apocalypticStrong odds
- + StrategyStrong odds
- + Multiple EndingsStrong odds
- + Immersive SimStrong odds
- + Choices MatterStrong odds
- + Dating SimStrong odds
- + RomanceStrong odds
- + SimulationStrong odds
- + JRPGStrong odds
- + Visual NovelStrong odds
- + RPGStrong odds
Comparable games
428: Shibuya Scramble 2018 · $5.6M 
The Operator 2024 · $3.6M 
Her Story 2015 · $2.5M 
Breakout 13 2023 · $2.1M 
The Centennial Case : A Shijima Story 2022 · $1.5M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | 428: Shibuya Scramble | older | $49.99 | 3,767 94% | 113k | $5.6M (exactly $5,649,370) | Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd., Abstraction G… (Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd., Abstraction Games) |
| | The Operator | older | $13.99 | 8,515 91% | 255k | $3.6M (exactly $3,573,746) | Bureau 81 |
| | Her Story | older | $9.99 | 8,367 89% | 251k | $2.5M (exactly $2,507,590) | Sam Barlow |
| | Breakout 13 | older | $9.99 | 6,899 87% | 207k | $2.1M (exactly $2,067,630) | ALT Lab |
| | The Centennial Case : A Shijima Story | older | $49.99 | 1,033 79% | 31k | $1.5M (exactly $1,549,190) | Square Enix |
 | Contradiction: Spot The Liar | older | $12.99 | 2,838 94% | 85k | $1.1M (exactly $1,105,969) | Baggy Cat Ltd. |
 | IMMORTALITY | older | $19.99 | 1,768 84% | 53k | $1.1M (exactly $1,060,270) | Sam Barlow, Half Mermaid |
 | Telling Lies | older | $19.99 | 1,250 62% | 38k | $750k (exactly $749,625) | Sam Barlow, Half Mermaid, Furious Bee L… (Sam Barlow, Half Mermaid, Furious Bee Limited) |
 | She Sees Red - Interactive Movie | older | $7.99 | 2,739 77% | 82k | $657k (exactly $656,538) | Rhinotales |
 | Erica | older | $11.99 | 1,629 78% | 49k | $586k (exactly $585,951) | Flavourworks |
 | Game of Fate 2: A Century's Promise | $15.99 | 1,054 78% | 32k | $506k (exactly $505,604) | KARMAGAME HK LIMITED | |
 | FLAM EVAW | $9.99 | 1,378 95% | 41k | $413k (exactly $412,987) | 北京万合瑞晟文化传媒有限公司 | |
 | Game Of Fate 3：Clash Of Crowns | $16.79 | 734 85% | 22k | $370k (exactly $369,716) | KARMAGAME HK LIMITED | |
 | Game of Fate: Chasing Through Time | $10.99 | 986 88% | 30k | $325k (exactly $325,084) | KARMAGAME HK LIMITED | |
 | Misty Judgment | $8.99 | 1,170 92% | 35k | $316k (exactly $315,549) | 次元边界 | |
 | Cellveillance | $15.99 | 531 85% | 16k | $255k (exactly $254,721) | KARMAGAME HK LIMITED | |
 | PatriotMemoirs | $15.58 | 528 83% | 16k | $247k (exactly $246,787) | KARMAGAME HK LIMITED | |
 | The Joker's Game | $11.99 | 486 82% | 15k | $175k (exactly $174,814) | All In Game Co., Limited | |
 | 侦探，请守护我的秘密吧！ | $8.99 | 525 88% | 16k | $142k (exactly $141,592) | 喜瑞互娱工作室 | |
 | 晨昏线 | $9.99 | 427 76% | 13k | $128k (exactly $127,972) | Enter Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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