Do I ship it?

GamesOffroadOffroad + Destruction

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Destruction Offroad game?

Offroad + Destruction

Only 6 developers shipped a Destruction Offroad game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Chaos on Wheels, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 18 more are announced, ×4.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $0 against a market of $1.5k. 18 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.0 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 18 announced, ×4.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Offroad + Destruction
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 6

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Offroad + Destruction: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 6
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $0 (exactly $0)
Top 25% $9.0k (exactly $8,991)
Top 5% $10k (exactly $10,190)
Developers, 2 yr 6
Released games 25
Announced 18
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Offroad
effort 7 / 10 · low · terrain and suspension physics
Destruction
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Offroad, Destruction
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 15,654 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $0, 1 in 4 over $8.9k, 1 in 20 over $10k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 18 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Offroad with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + 3D PlatformerLong shot14 devs · median $478 · 12 announced
  2. + Character CustomizationPoor odds11 devs · median $69k · 27 announced
  3. + Immersive SimPoor odds14 devs · median $19k · 32 announced
  4. + PvPPoor odds13 devs · median $4.3k · 19 announced
  5. + PhysicsPoor odds50 devs · median $2.7k · 71 announced
  6. + ExplorationPoor odds42 devs · median $2.7k · 70 announced
  7. + SportsPoor odds25 devs · median $2.5k · 28 announced
  8. + TransportationPoor odds10 devs · median $2.3k · 26 announced
  9. + Automobile SimPoor odds50 devs · median $1.7k · 74 announced
  10. + SimulationPoor odds57 devs · median $1.3k · 83 announced
  11. + Open WorldPoor odds22 devs · median $1.3k · 50 announced
  12. + NaturePoor odds20 devs · median $1.1k · 34 announced

All 28 pairs on the Offroad page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Gunner, HEAT, PC! · EA older $29.99 7,603 91% 228k $6.8M (exactly $6,840,419) Radian Simulations LLC
FlatOut older $7.49 5,870 91% 176k $1.3M (exactly $1,318,989) Bugbear Entertainment, ZOOM Platform Me… (Bugbear Entertainment, ZOOM Platform Media, Jordan Freeman Group)
Crashday Redline Edition older $11.99 1,528 89% 46k $550k (exactly $549,622) Moonbyte
Monster Jam™ Showdown older $49.99 213 71% 6.4k $319k (exactly $319,436) Milestone S.r.l.
RaceLeague · EA older $24.99 273 71% 8.2k $205k (exactly $204,668) Oversteer Studios
RXC - Rally Cross Challenge · EA older $19.99 73 90% 2.2k $44k (exactly $43,778) Gigabit Games
Chaos on Wheels $9.99 34 67% 1.0k $10k (exactly $10,190) Acodeon Development
Highway Drifter: Hajwala Simulator $9.99 30 86% 900 $9.0k (exactly $8,991) Mad Hook
Off-Road: Redneck Racing older $7.99 23 60% 690 $5.5k (exactly $5,513) Rage Software, Jordan Freeman Group
Tony Slopes™ · EA older $11.99 7 57% 210 $2.5k (exactly $2,518) SEEDTECH Studios Ltd
Boom Gear $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Asyynk Studios
Drift Off $2.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Riyadh Games
Petro Hunter $2.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) The Origin
NitroRun: Off-Road Rush $9.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Iron Grid Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.