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Should I ship a Deckbuilding Tactical RPG?
Tactical RPG + Deckbuilding
Of 74 developers who shipped a Deckbuilding Tactical RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 135 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.8k, ×6.0 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $490k, ×794 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 135 games are announced against 46 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $899 (exactly $899) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.8k (exactly $3,778) |
| Top 25% | $28k (exactly $28,354) |
| Top 5% | $498k (exactly $498,351) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 74 |
| Released games | 156 |
| Announced | 135 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Tactical RPG
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Deckbuilding
- effort 3 / 10 · high · card pools and run logic
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Tactical RPG, Deckbuilding; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, RPG, Turn-Based Strategy
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 87% positive over 8,845 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $900. 8 in 10 of the 35 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 135 games are announced against 46 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Tactical RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair
- + Mystery DungeonFair
- + Space SimFair
- + Point & ClickFair
- + 2D PlatformerFair
- + Asynchronous MultiplayerPoor odds
- + Colony SimPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
- + Turn-BasedPoor odds
- + RobotsPoor odds
- + RomancePoor odds
- + WarPoor odds
Comparable games
Marvel's Midnight Suns 2022 · $31M 
Gloomhaven 2021 · $14M 
Across the Obelisk 2022 · $6.4M 
Shogun Showdown 2024 · $2.8M 
Cobalt Core 2023 · $2.4M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Marvel's Midnight Suns | older | $59.99 | 17,060 82% | 512k | $31M (exactly $30,702,882) | Firaxis Games |
| | Gloomhaven | older | $34.99 | 13,628 82% | 409k | $14M (exactly $14,305,312) | Flaming Fowl Studios, Saber Interactive |
| | Across the Obelisk | older | $19.99 | 10,689 80% | 321k | $6.4M (exactly $6,410,193) | Dreamsite Games |
| | Shogun Showdown | older | $14.99 | 6,197 95% | 186k | $2.8M (exactly $2,786,791) | Roboatino |
| | Cobalt Core | older | $19.99 | 4,067 95% | 122k | $2.4M (exactly $2,438,980) | Rocket Rat Games |
 | Trials of Fire | older | $19.99 | 2,975 86% | 89k | $1.8M (exactly $1,784,107) | Whatboy Games |
 | Aces & Adventures | older | $19.99 | 2,220 89% | 67k | $1.3M (exactly $1,331,334) | Triple.B.Titles |
 | Warhammer Underworlds - Shadespire Edition (Classic) | older | $29.99 | 1,059 70% | 32k | $953k (exactly $952,782) | Steel Sky Productions, Tin Man Games |
 | Oaken Tower | · EA | $9.99 | 3,024 89% | 91k | $906k (exactly $906,293) | Bocary Studios |
 | Dice Gambit | $24.99 | 1,080 87% | 32k | $810k (exactly $809,676) | Chromatic Ink | |
 | Fretless - The Wrath of Riffson | $14.99 | 1,399 98% | 42k | $629k (exactly $629,130) | Ritual Studios | |
 | Knights in Tight Spaces | $19.99 | 831 69% | 25k | $498k (exactly $498,351) | Ground Shatter | |
 | Vivid World | $19.99 | 591 88% | 18k | $354k (exactly $354,423) | Asobism.Co.,Ltd | |
 | The Royal Writ | $14.99 | 425 80% | 13k | $191k (exactly $191,122) | Save Sloth Studios | |
 | Bioweaver | $6.99 | 668 77% | 20k | $140k (exactly $140,080) | Emprom Game, Wild Kid Games | |
 | Hive Blight | · EA | $12.49 | 367 94% | 11k | $138k (exactly $137,515) | OptizOnion |
 | YGGDRA REFRAIN | $9.99 | 311 79% | 9.3k | $93k (exactly $93,207) | BD | |
 | Golden Swirl | $19.99 | 149 92% | 4.5k | $89k (exactly $89,355) | Snako Production |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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