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Should I ship a Deckbuilding Sandbox?
Sandbox + Deckbuilding
Of 29 developers who shipped a Deckbuilding Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 32 more are announced.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $6.9k, ×11 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $1.5M, ×2479 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 32 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $599 (exactly $599) |
|---|---|
| Median | $6.9k (exactly $6,893) |
| Top 25% | $35k (exactly $35,463) |
| Top 5% | $1.6M (exactly $1,556,978) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 29 |
| Released games | 50 |
| Announced | 32 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Sandbox
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
- Deckbuilding
- effort 3 / 10 · high · card pools and run logic
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Sandbox, Deckbuilding; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, RPG, Roguelike
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Funny, Cute
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 83% positive over 15,865 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $600. 6 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 32 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.
Adjacent niches
Sandbox with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FightingStrong odds
- + Turn-BasedFair
- + World War IIFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + ProgrammingFair
- + CatsFair
- + SportsFair
- + GamblingFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Trading Card GameFair
- + IdlerFair
Comparable games
| Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | The Matchless Kungfu | $19.99 | 6,755 79% | 203k | $4.1M (exactly $4,050,973) | HuanMos Game | |
| | Moonstone Island | older | $19.99 | 4,063 84% | 122k | $2.4M (exactly $2,436,581) | Studio Supersoft |
| | Matchmaking Inc. | $8.99 | 5,773 87% | 173k | $1.6M (exactly $1,556,978) | Wave Games | |
| | Ballionaire | $12.34 | 2,398 85% | 72k | $888k (exactly $887,740) | newobject | |
| | Erannorth Chronicles | older | $20.99 | 407 85% | 12k | $256k (exactly $256,288) | Spyridon Thalassinos |
| | Sinners Landing | $19.99 | 180 86% | 5.4k | $108k (exactly $107,946) | Flexible Media | |
| | Koi Farm | older | $2.99 | 907 94% | 27k | $81k (exactly $81,358) | Job Talle, 3xBlast |
| | Farm Keeper | older | $4.99 | 390 91% | 12k | $58k (exactly $58,383) | Cuddle Code |
| | Tiny Kingdom | $10.99 | 150 79% | 4.5k | $49k (exactly $49,455) | neltile | |
| | 大宋英雄传(SongHeros) | · EA | $9.99 | 161 79% | 4.8k | $48k (exactly $48,252) | LazyManGameStudio |
| | Tower Lab | · EA | $9.99 | 133 73% | 4.0k | $40k (exactly $39,860) | Devon Powell, Xueer Zhu |
| | ploink | $12.99 | 91 96% | 2.7k | $35k (exactly $35,463) | Pyrocreep | |
| | Yuma Nest | · EA | $19.99 | 57 89% | 1.7k | $34k (exactly $34,183) | Piokou |
| | FeeBay Simulator | $5.99 | 167 91% | 5.0k | $30k (exactly $30,010) | Lake Country Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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