Do I ship it?

GamesSandboxSandbox + Deckbuilding

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Deckbuilding Sandbox?

Sandbox + Deckbuilding

Of 29 developers who shipped a Deckbuilding Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 32 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.9k, ×11 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $1.5M, ×2479 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 32 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 11.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 32 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sandbox + Deckbuilding
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 29
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $32k → $898 → $888k → $48k → $899 → $599 (still earning) → $35k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sandbox + Deckbuilding: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 29
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $6.9k (exactly $6,893)
Top 25% $35k (exactly $35,463)
Top 5% $1.6M (exactly $1,556,978)
Developers, 2 yr 29
Released games 50
Announced 32
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Deckbuilding
effort 3 / 10 · high · card pools and run logic

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sandbox, Deckbuilding; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, RPG, Roguelike
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Funny, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 15,865 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $6.9k, 1 in 4 over $35k, 1 in 20 over $1.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 6 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 32 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sandbox with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FightingStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  3. + World War IIFair14 devs · median $146k · 13 announced
  4. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $17k · 12 announced
  5. + ProgrammingFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  6. + CatsFair63 devs · median $4.8k · 74 announced
  7. + SportsFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  8. + GamblingFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  9. + Auto BattlerFair45 devs · median $1.9k · 42 announced
  10. + Combat RacingFair21 devs · median $1.8k · 26 announced
  11. + Trading Card GameFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  12. + IdlerFair258 devs · median $1.2k · 306 announced

All 233 pairs on the Sandbox page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Matchless Kungfu $19.99 6,755 79% 203k $4.1M (exactly $4,050,973) HuanMos Game
Moonstone Island older $19.99 4,063 84% 122k $2.4M (exactly $2,436,581) Studio Supersoft
Matchmaking Inc. $8.99 5,773 87% 173k $1.6M (exactly $1,556,978) Wave Games
Ballionaire $12.34 2,398 85% 72k $888k (exactly $887,740) newobject
Erannorth Chronicles older $20.99 407 85% 12k $256k (exactly $256,288) Spyridon Thalassinos
Sinners Landing $19.99 180 86% 5.4k $108k (exactly $107,946) Flexible Media
Koi Farm older $2.99 907 94% 27k $81k (exactly $81,358) Job Talle, 3xBlast
Farm Keeper older $4.99 390 91% 12k $58k (exactly $58,383) Cuddle Code
Tiny Kingdom $10.99 150 79% 4.5k $49k (exactly $49,455) neltile
大宋英雄传(SongHeros) · EA $9.99 161 79% 4.8k $48k (exactly $48,252) LazyManGameStudio
Tower Lab · EA $9.99 133 73% 4.0k $40k (exactly $39,860) Devon Powell, Xueer Zhu
ploink $12.99 91 96% 2.7k $35k (exactly $35,463) Pyrocreep
Yuma Nest · EA $19.99 57 89% 1.7k $34k (exactly $34,183) Piokou
FeeBay Simulator $5.99 167 91% 5.0k $30k (exactly $30,010) Lake Country Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.