Do I ship it?

GamesPvPPvP + Deckbuilding

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a PvP Deckbuilding?

PvP + Deckbuilding

Of 146 developers who shipped a paid PvP Deckbuilding in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 5 in 10 of the games here are free to play and sit outside these figures. 402 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×1.1 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $640k, ×428 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 402 games are announced against 103 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 402 announced, ×3.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvP + Deckbuilding
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 146
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.8k → $21k → $2.4k → $2.7k → $6.5k → $3.1k → $3.1k (still earning) → $300 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvP + Deckbuilding: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 146
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.6k (exactly $1,647)
Top 25% $23k (exactly $23,384)
Top 5% $642k (exactly $641,743)
Developers, 2 yr 146
Released games 412
Announced 402
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 140% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 48%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvP
effort 8 / 10 · low · authoritative servers, latency compensation, cheating
Deckbuilding
effort 3 / 10 · high · card pools and run logic

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
PvP, Deckbuilding; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Card Battler, Card Game
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $22.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Anime, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $22.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 72% positive over 67,788 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.6k, 1 in 4 over $23k, 1 in 20 over $640k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 7 in 10 of the 80 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 402 games are announced against 103 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvP with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + BaseballFair6 devs · median $7.6k · 9 announced
  2. + TransportationFair10 devs · median $5.7k · 11 announced
  3. + BasketballFair25 devs · median $2.6k · 28 announced
  4. + Football (American)Fair17 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  5. + BikesFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  6. + GolfFair29 devs · median $1.4k · 34 announced
  7. + World War IFair12 devs · median $1.3k · 14 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair36 devs · median $1.2k · 48 announced
  9. + BilliardsFair18 devs · median $1.1k · 12 announced
  10. + TennisLong shot17 devs · median $899 · 15 announced
  11. + TypingLong shot28 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  12. + SpellingLong shot14 devs · median $719 · 17 announced

All 247 pairs on the PvP page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Broken Arrow $49.99 25,924 55% 778k $39M (exactly $38,878,223) Steel Balalaika
INAZUMA ELEVEN: Victory Road $69.99 11,180 88% 335k $23M (exactly $23,474,646) LEVEL5 Inc.
Monster Train older $24.99 19,950 95% 599k $15M (exactly $14,956,515) Shiny Shoe
The Bazaar $19.99 14,931 70% 448k $9.0M (exactly $8,954,121) Tempo
Monster Train 2 $24.99 8,647 95% 259k $6.5M (exactly $6,482,656) Shiny Shoe
ROUNDS older $5.99 35,738 95% 1.1M $6.4M (exactly $6,422,119) Landfall
Gordian Quest older $19.99 5,259 88% 158k $3.2M (exactly $3,153,822) Mixed Realms Pte Ltd, Swag Soft Holding… (Mixed Realms Pte Ltd, Swag Soft Holdings Pte Ltd)
SUPER DRAGON BALL HEROES WORLD MISSION older $59.99 1,404 82% 42k $2.5M (exactly $2,526,779) Dimps Corporation, SAFARI GAMES Co., Lt… (Dimps Corporation, SAFARI GAMES Co., Ltd.)
Cardfight!! Vanguard Dear Days older $69.99 1,186 76% 36k $2.5M (exactly $2,490,244) FURYU Corporation, LANCARSE Ltd.
Mega Man Battle Network Legacy Collection Vol. 1 older $39.99 1,290 87% 39k $1.5M (exactly $1,547,613) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Cardfight!! Vanguard Dear Days 2 $69.99 631 67% 19k $1.3M (exactly $1,324,911) FURYU Corporation, LANCARSE Ltd.
Oaken Tower · EA $9.99 3,024 89% 91k $906k (exactly $906,293) Bocary Studios
Yu-Gi-Oh! EARLY DAYS COLLECTION $49.99 444 76% 13k $666k (exactly $665,867) Digital Eclipse
Card-en-Ciel $24.99 856 90% 26k $642k (exactly $641,743) INTI CREATES CO., LTD.
Card Shop Simulator Multiplayer $11.99 1,609 82% 48k $579k (exactly $578,757) ShaneGame
Clank! $22.99 542 92% 16k $374k (exactly $373,817) Dire Wolf

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.