Do I ship it?

Games › Physics › Physics + Deckbuilding

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Physics Deckbuilding?

Physics + Deckbuilding

Of 70 developers who shipped a Physics Deckbuilding in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 123 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.5k, ×7.2 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $680k, ×1091 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 123 games are announced against 58 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 123 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Physics + Deckbuilding
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 70
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.6k → $888k → $8.1k → $2.8k → $2.2k (still earning) → $4.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Physics + Deckbuilding: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 70
Bottom 30% $719 (exactly $719)
Median $4.5k (exactly $4,491)
Top 25% $31k (exactly $31,161)
Top 5% $685k (exactly $684,893)
Developers, 2 yr 70
Released games 91
Announced 123
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.81

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 385% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
Deckbuilding
effort 3 / 10 · high · card pools and run logic

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Physics, Deckbuilding; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelike, Roguelite, Arcade
Price point
$7.81 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Relaxing, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $7.81.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 16,716 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $720, median $4.5k, 1 in 4 over $31k, 1 in 20 over $680k.

3 in 10 developers made under $720. 7 in 10 of the 20 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 123 games are announced against 58 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Physics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds31 devs · median $8.1k · 30 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair28 devs · median $5.9k · 20 announced
  3. + PinballFair62 devs · median $2.5k · 80 announced
  4. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  5. + Mini GolfFair40 devs · median $1.2k · 44 announced
  6. + GolfFair55 devs · median $987 · 59 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair179 devs · median $718 · 230 announced
  8. + IdlerFair142 devs · median $718 · 167 announced
  9. + Hidden ObjectFair162 devs · median $600 · 157 announced
  10. + CatsFair76 devs · median $599 · 101 announced
  11. + Mystery DungeonFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced
  12. + BilliardsFair36 devs · median $538 · 32 announced

All 251 pairs on the Physics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Peglin 2024 · $10M ROUNDS 2021 · $6.4M Dungeon Clawler 2026 · $1.7M RACCOIN: Coin Pusher Roguelike 2026 · $1.5M Ballionaire 2024 · $888k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Peglin older $19.99 16,626 83% 499k $10M (exactly $9,970,612) Red Nexus Games Inc.
ROUNDS older $5.99 35,738 95% 1.1M $6.4M (exactly $6,422,119) Landfall
Dungeon Clawler $14.99 3,716 88% 111k $1.7M (exactly $1,671,085) Stray Fawn Studio
RACCOIN: Coin Pusher Roguelike $11.99 4,239 82% 127k $1.5M (exactly $1,524,768) Doraccoon
Ballionaire $12.34 2,398 85% 72k $888k (exactly $887,740) newobject
Omelet You Cook $14.99 1,523 97% 46k $685k (exactly $684,893) Dan Schumacher, Hjalte Tagmose
Rune Dice $14.99 1,267 79% 38k $570k (exactly $569,770) Smart Raven Studio
SNKRX older $2.99 4,198 94% 126k $377k (exactly $376,561) a327ex
A Gentlemen's Dispute $7.99 1,199 94% 36k $287k (exactly $287,400) Blast Furnace Games
Oceanhorn 2: Knights of the Lost Realm older $29.99 296 73% 8.9k $266k (exactly $266,311) Cornfox & Brothers Ltd.
Kinny and the Cosmic Cauldron $12.99 563 85% 17k $219k (exactly $219,401) Kinnymoms
Dogpile $9.99 708 95% 21k $212k (exactly $212,188) Studio Folly, Toot Games, Foot
ROGUE LIGHT DECK BUILDER $3.99 888 94% 27k $106k (exactly $106,294) Gil Lawson
Pro Jank Footy $14.99 215 80% 6.5k $97k (exactly $96,686) Powerbomb Games, Tinker Town

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.