Do I ship it?

GamesFarming SimFarming Sim + Dating Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dating Sim Farming Sim?

Farming Sim + Dating Sim

Of 32 developers who shipped a Dating Sim Farming Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 82 more are announced, ×4.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $19k, ×40 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $5.3M, ×11166 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 82 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 39.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 82 announced, ×4.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Farming Sim + Dating Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 32
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.8M → $881k → $54k → $80k → $89k → $826k → $3.4k (still earning) → $3.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Farming Sim + Dating Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 32
Bottom 30% $2.3k (exactly $2,308)
Median $19k (exactly $18,936)
Top 25% $164k (exactly $163,691)
Top 5% $5.3M (exactly $5,303,716)
Developers, 2 yr 32
Released games 83
Announced 82
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Farming Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Dating Sim
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Farming Sim, Dating Sim; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Crafting, Life Sim
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, 2D, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 44,973 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.4k, median $19k, 1 in 4 over $160k, 1 in 20 over $5.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.4k. 3 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 82 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Farming Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair19 devs · median $12k · 23 announced
  2. + DogsFair18 devs · median $4.1k · 20 announced
  3. + IncrementalFair140 devs · median $1.6k · 168 announced
  4. + IdlerFair208 devs · median $1.3k · 211 announced
  5. + TacticalFair12 devs · median $897 · 10 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair17 devs · median $718 · 16 announced
  7. + God GameLong shot22 devs · median $359 · 24 announced
  8. + Visual NovelLong shot11 devs · median $239 · 13 announced
  9. + LGBTQ+Poor odds10 devs · median $146k · 16 announced
  10. + Psychological HorrorPoor odds11 devs · median $111k · 25 announced
  11. + JRPGPoor odds14 devs · median $89k · 20 announced
  12. + HorsesPoor odds14 devs · median $70k · 20 announced

All 102 pairs on the Farming Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Stardew Valley older $14.99 894,201 98% 27M $402M (exactly $402,122,190) ConcernedApe
My Time at Sandrock older $39.99 24,110 88% 723k $29M (exactly $28,924,767) Pathea Games
Coral Island older $29.99 21,828 89% 655k $20M (exactly $19,638,652) Stairway Games
Sun Haven older $24.99 22,069 79% 662k $17M (exactly $16,545,129) Pixel Sprout Studios
Fields of Mistria $13.99 31,918 96% 958k $13M (exactly $13,395,985) NPC Studio
STORY OF SEASONS: Friends of Mineral Town older $39.99 5,268 93% 158k $6.3M (exactly $6,320,020) Marvelous Inc.
Rune Factory: Guardians of Azuma $59.99 2,947 88% 88k $5.3M (exactly $5,303,716) Marvelous Inc.
STORY OF SEASONS: Grand Bazaar $49.99 3,140 93% 94k $4.7M (exactly $4,709,058) Marvelous Inc.
Clanfolk · EA older $29.99 3,779 91% 113k $3.4M (exactly $3,399,966) MinMax Games Ltd.
Roots of Pacha older $24.99 3,779 93% 113k $2.8M (exactly $2,833,116) Soda Den
Tales of Seikyu $24.99 2,179 83% 65k $1.6M (exactly $1,633,596) ACE Entertainment
Return from Core $16.99 1,620 75% 49k $826k (exactly $825,714) 顽核社 FuncoreClub
To Pixelia $14.99 1,194 73% 36k $537k (exactly $536,942) Pixeduo Studios
One Lonely Outpost $19.99 540 58% 16k $324k (exactly $323,838) indie.io
欺神弄鬼 · EA $9.99 802 91% 24k $240k (exactly $240,359) 猫台班子工作室 Cat Caboodle
Orange Season $14.99 364 59% 11k $164k (exactly $163,691) Innerfire Studios
Syn-Chorus 01: The New Life · EA $10.99 269 83% 8.1k $89k (exactly $88,689) PrisMaze棱镜迷阵

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.