Do I ship it?

GamesReal Time TacticsReal Time Tactics + Dark Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dark-Fantasy Real Time Tactics?

Real Time Tactics + Dark Fantasy

Of 50 developers who shipped a Dark-Fantasy Real Time Tactics in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 115 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $89; 1 in 20 cleared $400k, ×649 the market median. Revenue is up 485% on the market; 115 games are announced against 31 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 485% on the market, 115 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Real Time Tactics + Dark Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 50
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $598 → $2.5k → $628 → $0 → $748 → $9.0k → $599 (still earning) → $3.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Real Time Tactics + Dark Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 50
Bottom 30% $89 (exactly $89)
Median $897 (exactly $897)
Top 25% $19k (exactly $18,708)
Top 5% $408k (exactly $407,796)
Developers, 2 yr 50
Released games 119
Announced 115
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 485% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Real Time Tactics
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Dark Fantasy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Real Time Tactics; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, RTS, Roguelite
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $21.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $21.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 11,938 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $89, median $900, 1 in 4 over $18k, 1 in 20 over $400k.

3 in 10 developers made under $89. 9 in 10 of the 25 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 115 games are announced against 31 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Real Time Tactics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + DragonsStrong odds17 devs · median $6.6k · 19 announced
  2. + Outbreak SimFair12 devs · median $1.8k · 14 announced
  3. + HackingFair11 devs · median $987 · 11 announced
  4. + World War IIPoor odds24 devs · median $67k · 35 announced
  5. + Cold WarPoor odds9 devs · median $19k · 16 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds88 devs · median $19k · 154 announced
  7. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds19 devs · median $16k · 31 announced
  8. + Real-TimePoor odds16 devs · median $16k · 26 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds16 devs · median $13k · 32 announced
  10. + Vehicular CombatPoor odds20 devs · median $9.6k · 50 announced
  11. + God GamePoor odds19 devs · median $7.8k · 32 announced
  12. + Open WorldPoor odds29 devs · median $7.2k · 111 announced

All 176 pairs on the Real Time Tactics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Total War: WARHAMMER III older $59.99 104,822 71% 3.1M $189M (exactly $188,648,153) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive
Total War: WARHAMMER II older $59.99 85,134 92% 2.6M $153M (exactly $153,215,660) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Total War: WARHAMMER older $59.99 32,105 79% 963k $58M (exactly $57,779,368) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (L… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Linux), Feral Interactive (Mac))
Dungeons 3 older $29.99 12,648 93% 379k $11M (exactly $11,379,406) Realmforge Studios
The King is Watching $14.99 9,006 88% 270k $4.0M (exactly $4,049,998) Hypnohead
Blackthorn Arena older $24.99 3,477 69% 104k $2.6M (exactly $2,606,707) PersonaeGame Studio
Battlefleet Gothic: Armada (Classic) older $14.99 5,135 68% 154k $2.3M (exactly $2,309,210) Tindalos Interactive
Hadean Tactics older $19.99 1,725 89% 52k $1.0M (exactly $1,034,482) Emberfish Games
Abandon Ship older $24.99 1,151 71% 35k $863k (exactly $862,905) Fireblade Software
Dark Envoy older $29.99 783 69% 23k $704k (exactly $704,465) Event Horizon
Blackthorn Arena: Reforged $24.99 882 66% 26k $661k (exactly $661,235) PersonaeGame Studio
Crown of Greed $19.99 680 60% 20k $408k (exactly $407,796) BLUM Entertainment
Wartorn $34.99 130 73% 3.9k $136k (exactly $136,461) Stray Kite Studios
Liquidation RTS · EA $21.99 161 89% 4.8k $106k (exactly $106,212) Divio
Flowers and Deities $12.99 265 90% 8.0k $103k (exactly $103,270) Chill Winter Studio
The Gate Must Stand $9.99 236 78% 7.1k $71k (exactly $70,729) Senmu Studio
Tap Dungeon $4.99 334 81% 10k $50k (exactly $50,000) Xiao5 Studios
Smilers Den Deluxxx $6.99 160 84% 4.8k $34k (exactly $33,552) MikiY
The Deadly Path $12.99 84 39% 2.5k $33k (exactly $32,735) Owlskip Enterprises

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.