Do I ship it?

GamesTactical RPGTactical RPG + Crime

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crime Tactical RPG?

Tactical RPG + Crime

Only 10 developers shipped a Crime Tactical RPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Neon Blood, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 18 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.9k, ×11 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $39k, ×63 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 18 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 11.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 18 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tactical RPG + Crime
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $10k → $5.8k → $6.9k → $419 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tactical RPG + Crime: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $1.0k (exactly $1,048)
Median $6.9k (exactly $6,924)
Top 25% $11k (exactly $11,389)
Top 5% $39k (exactly $39,398)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 29
Announced 18
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $10.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tactical RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Crime
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Tactical RPG
Price point
$10.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 9 games average 77% positive over 254 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.1k, median $6.9k, 1 in 4 over $11k, 1 in 20 over $39k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.1k. All of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 18 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tactical RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair24 devs · median $9.0k · 29 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonFair30 devs · median $2.4k · 24 announced
  3. + Space SimFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 15 announced
  4. + Point & ClickFair21 devs · median $839 · 26 announced
  5. + 2D PlatformerFair58 devs · median $599 · 49 announced
  6. + Asynchronous MultiplayerPoor odds10 devs · median $63k · 16 announced
  7. + Colony SimPoor odds16 devs · median $41k · 29 announced
  8. + SandboxPoor odds42 devs · median $20k · 102 announced
  9. + Turn-BasedPoor odds61 devs · median $18k · 81 announced
  10. + RobotsPoor odds15 devs · median $17k · 27 announced
  11. + RomancePoor odds23 devs · median $10k · 38 announced
  12. + WarPoor odds80 devs · median $8.7k · 143 announced

All 145 pairs on the Tactical RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sunday Gold older $21.99 687 77% 21k $453k (exactly $453,214) BKOM Studios
Gone Rogue older $14.99 282 87% 8.5k $127k (exactly $126,815) AskaLot Games
Vigilantes older $14.99 276 80% 8.3k $124k (exactly $124,117) Timeslip Softworks
Midnight Protocol older $14.99 237 87% 7.1k $107k (exactly $106,579) LuGus Studios
Fleshlight Squad - Fleshlightize - older $14.99 178 75% 5.3k $80k (exactly $80,047) ちゃおいずむ
Neon Blood $17.99 73 60% 2.2k $39k (exactly $39,398) ChaoticBrain Studios
Lustpunk 69 $8.99 83 87% 2.5k $22k (exactly $22,385) Kinky Business Group
Police Response VR : Disturbance older $4.99 93 88% 2.8k $14k (exactly $13,922) Caltain VR Ltd
Prison Notes $9.99 38 94% 1.1k $11k (exactly $11,389) 闻岚工坊(Vinland Studio)
New Citizen - Alpha · EA older $24.99 14 28% 420 $10k (exactly $10,496) Specpixel Entertainment
Cult Leader Simulator $17.99 16 50% 480 $8.6k (exactly $8,635) Nhneno
Paracom $10.99 21 90% 630 $6.9k (exactly $6,924) Steel Widow Klan
Convict Team Tactics $2.99 13 92% 390 $1.2k (exactly $1,166) Asocial Guarantee
Pretty Agent 2 $4.99 7 28% 210 $1.0k (exactly $1,048) MC GAME
Steal Shift · EA $6.99 2 100% 60 $419 (exactly $419) Fusion Iconic
Pity Please! $12.99 1 100% 30 $390 (exactly $390) RebelMedia Interactive
Mortal Destiny $11.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Raick

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.