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Should I ship a Crime Sandbox?
Sandbox + Crime
Of 47 developers who shipped a Crime Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 134 more are announced, ×4.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $4.8k, ×7.6 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $4.3M, ×7004 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 134 games are announced against 31 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $898 (exactly $898) |
|---|---|
| Median | $4.8k (exactly $4,795) |
| Top 25% | $117k (exactly $116,677) |
| Top 5% | $4.4M (exactly $4,398,200) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 47 |
| Released games | 140 |
| Announced | 134 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 95% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Sandbox; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Open World, Simulation, Action
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Realistic
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 83% positive over 229,984 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $900. 5 in 10 of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 134 games are announced against 31 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Sandbox with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FightingStrong odds
- + Turn-BasedFair
- + World War IIFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + ProgrammingFair
- + CatsFair
- + SportsFair
- + GamblingFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Trading Card GameFair
- + IdlerFair
Comparable games
| Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Grand Theft Auto V Enhanced | $29.99 | 210,784 83% | 6.3M | $190M (exactly $189,642,365) | Rockstar North | |
| | Watch_Dogs® 2 | older | $49.99 | 95,242 82% | 2.9M | $143M (exactly $142,834,427) | Ubisoft |
| | Grand Theft Auto IV: The Complete Edition | older | $19.99 | 180,637 83% | 5.4M | $108M (exactly $108,328,009) | Rockstar North, Rockstar Toronto |
| | Sleeping Dogs: Definitive Edition | older | $19.99 | 70,499 94% | 2.1M | $42M (exactly $42,278,250) | United Front Games, Feral Interactive (… (United Front Games, Feral Interactive (Mac)) |
| | Mafia III: Definitive Edition | older | $29.99 | 41,612 57% | 1.2M | $37M (exactly $37,438,316) | Hangar 13, Aspyr (Mac) |
| | Mafia II (Classic) | older | $29.99 | 36,389 92% | 1.1M | $33M (exactly $32,739,183) | 2K Czech |
| | Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas – The Definitive Edition | older | $59.99 | 15,628 80% | 469k | $28M (exactly $28,125,712) | Rockstar Games |
| | Thief Simulator | older | $19.99 | 37,377 88% | 1.1M | $22M (exactly $22,414,987) | Noble Muffins |
| | Grand Theft Auto: Vice City – The Definitive Edition | older | $59.99 | 9,037 82% | 271k | $16M (exactly $16,263,889) | Rockstar Games |
| | Saints Row: The Third | older | $9.99 | 48,877 95% | 1.5M | $15M (exactly $14,648,437) | Volition |
| | The Precinct | $29.99 | 7,837 87% | 235k | $7.1M (exactly $7,050,949) | Fallen Tree Games Ltd | |
| | Cash Cleaner Simulator | $19.99 | 7,334 92% | 220k | $4.4M (exactly $4,398,200) | Mind Control Games | |
| | Used Cars Simulator | · EA | $19.99 | 1,147 79% | 34k | $688k (exactly $687,856) | DreamWay Games |
| | Saloon Simulator | · EA | $18.99 | 860 89% | 26k | $490k (exactly $489,942) | Glivi Games S.A. |
| | It's Only Money | $24.99 | 473 78% | 14k | $355k (exactly $354,608) | Usual Suspects Studios | |
| | Responding | · EA | $24.99 | 409 45% | 12k | $307k (exactly $306,627) | Visionary Studios |
| | Deliver At All Costs | $29.99 | 320 73% | 9.6k | $288k (exactly $287,904) | Studio Far Out Games | |
| | MMA Life Simulator | $16.99 | 435 80% | 13k | $222k (exactly $221,719) | BNS7 | |
| | The Boss Gangster: Criminal Empire | · EA | $18.99 | 385 81% | 12k | $219k (exactly $219,334) | BEF GAMES |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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