Do I ship it?

GamesSandboxSandbox + Crime

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crime Sandbox?

Sandbox + Crime

Of 47 developers who shipped a Crime Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 134 more are announced, ×4.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.8k, ×7.6 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $4.3M, ×7004 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 134 games are announced against 31 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 134 announced, ×4.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sandbox + Crime
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 47
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $12k → $1.6M → $109k → $355k → $288k → $8.1k → $5.7k (still earning) → $179 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sandbox + Crime: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 47
Bottom 30% $898 (exactly $898)
Median $4.8k (exactly $4,795)
Top 25% $117k (exactly $116,677)
Top 5% $4.4M (exactly $4,398,200)
Developers, 2 yr 47
Released games 140
Announced 134
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 95% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Crime
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sandbox; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Open World, Simulation, Action
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 229,984 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $4.8k, 1 in 4 over $110k, 1 in 20 over $4.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 5 in 10 of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 134 games are announced against 31 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sandbox with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FightingStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  3. + World War IIFair14 devs · median $146k · 13 announced
  4. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $17k · 12 announced
  5. + ProgrammingFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  6. + CatsFair63 devs · median $4.8k · 74 announced
  7. + SportsFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  8. + GamblingFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  9. + Auto BattlerFair45 devs · median $1.9k · 42 announced
  10. + Combat RacingFair21 devs · median $1.8k · 26 announced
  11. + Trading Card GameFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  12. + IdlerFair258 devs · median $1.2k · 306 announced

All 233 pairs on the Sandbox page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Grand Theft Auto V Enhanced $29.99 210,784 83% 6.3M $190M (exactly $189,642,365) Rockstar North
Watch_Dogs® 2 older $49.99 95,242 82% 2.9M $143M (exactly $142,834,427) Ubisoft
Grand Theft Auto IV: The Complete Edition older $19.99 180,637 83% 5.4M $108M (exactly $108,328,009) Rockstar North, Rockstar Toronto
Sleeping Dogs: Definitive Edition older $19.99 70,499 94% 2.1M $42M (exactly $42,278,250) United Front Games, Feral Interactive (… (United Front Games, Feral Interactive (Mac))
Mafia III: Definitive Edition older $29.99 41,612 57% 1.2M $37M (exactly $37,438,316) Hangar 13, Aspyr (Mac)
Mafia II (Classic) older $29.99 36,389 92% 1.1M $33M (exactly $32,739,183) 2K Czech
Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas – The Definitive Edition older $59.99 15,628 80% 469k $28M (exactly $28,125,712) Rockstar Games
Thief Simulator older $19.99 37,377 88% 1.1M $22M (exactly $22,414,987) Noble Muffins
Grand Theft Auto: Vice City – The Definitive Edition older $59.99 9,037 82% 271k $16M (exactly $16,263,889) Rockstar Games
Saints Row: The Third older $9.99 48,877 95% 1.5M $15M (exactly $14,648,437) Volition
The Precinct $29.99 7,837 87% 235k $7.1M (exactly $7,050,949) Fallen Tree Games Ltd
Cash Cleaner Simulator $19.99 7,334 92% 220k $4.4M (exactly $4,398,200) Mind Control Games
Used Cars Simulator · EA $19.99 1,147 79% 34k $688k (exactly $687,856) DreamWay Games
Saloon Simulator · EA $18.99 860 89% 26k $490k (exactly $489,942) Glivi Games S.A.
It's Only Money $24.99 473 78% 14k $355k (exactly $354,608) Usual Suspects Studios
Responding · EA $24.99 409 45% 12k $307k (exactly $306,627) Visionary Studios
Deliver At All Costs $29.99 320 73% 9.6k $288k (exactly $287,904) Studio Far Out Games
MMA Life Simulator $16.99 435 80% 13k $222k (exactly $221,719) BNS7
The Boss Gangster: Criminal Empire · EA $18.99 385 81% 12k $219k (exactly $219,334) BEF GAMES

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.