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Should I ship a Crime Physics game?
Physics + Crime
Of 31 developers who shipped a Crime Physics game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 93 more are announced, ×6.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×3.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $1.2M, ×1948 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 93 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $360 (exactly $360) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.9k (exactly $1,946) |
| Top 25% | $55k (exactly $55,390) |
| Top 5% | $1.2M (exactly $1,223,388) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 31 |
| Released games | 64 |
| Announced | 93 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Physics; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Action, Sandbox
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Dark Humor
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 87% positive over 15,248 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $360. 6 in 10 of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 93 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.2 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Physics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds
- + Dating SimFair
- + PinballFair
- + World War IIFair
- + Mini GolfFair
- + GolfFair
- + CollectathonFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + CatsFair
- + Mystery DungeonFair
- + BilliardsFair
Comparable games
Grand Theft Auto IV: The Complete Edition 2020 · $108M 
Flashing Lights - Police, Firefighting, Emergency Services (EMS) Simulator 2023 · $12M 
Cash Cleaner Simulator 2025 · $4.4M 
Sub Rosa 2021 · EA · $1.7M 
Arctic Eggs 2024 · $1.6M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Grand Theft Auto IV: The Complete Edition | older | $19.99 | 180,637 83% | 5.4M | $108M (exactly $108,328,009) | Rockstar North, Rockstar Toronto |
| | Flashing Lights - Police, Firefighting, Emergency Services (EMS) Simulator | older | $24.99 | 16,166 80% | 485k | $12M (exactly $12,119,650) | Nils Jakrins |
| | Cash Cleaner Simulator | $19.99 | 7,334 92% | 220k | $4.4M (exactly $4,398,200) | Mind Control Games | |
| | Sub Rosa | · EA older | $19.99 | 2,860 69% | 86k | $1.7M (exactly $1,715,142) | Cryptic Sea |
| | Arctic Eggs | older | $9.99 | 5,343 95% | 160k | $1.6M (exactly $1,601,297) | The Water Museum, cockydoody, abmarnie,… (The Water Museum, cockydoody, abmarnie, Cameron Ginex) |
 | The Break-In | $19.99 | 2,040 87% | 61k | $1.2M (exactly $1,223,388) | jorgen games Ltd, Oliver Josh | |
 | Prison Escape Simulator: Dig Out | $7.99 | 3,490 85% | 105k | $837k (exactly $836,553) | Digital Melody | |
 | Used Cars Simulator | · EA | $19.99 | 1,147 79% | 34k | $688k (exactly $687,856) | DreamWay Games |
 | Autobahn Police Simulator 2 | older | $19.99 | 760 54% | 23k | $456k (exactly $455,772) | Z-Software |
 | Deliver At All Costs | $29.99 | 320 73% | 9.6k | $288k (exactly $287,904) | Studio Far Out Games | |
 | Last Drop | · EA | $13.99 | 278 87% | 8.3k | $117k (exactly $116,677) | Lohkare Games Oy |
 | Crime Shop Simulator: A Prison Boss Game | $19.99 | 157 85% | 4.7k | $94k (exactly $94,153) | TREBUCHET | |
 | Scam Center Simulator: UnderKingdom | · EA | $10.99 | 168 75% | 5.0k | $55k (exactly $55,390) | Jiao Games |
 | Police Officer | $11.99 | 125 65% | 3.8k | $45k (exactly $44,962) | Turquoise Games | |
 | Kraken City | $4.99 | 189 67% | 5.7k | $28k (exactly $28,293) | nStarcube |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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